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聚烯烃日报：新增产能放量，聚烯烃震荡走低-20250805
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-05 05:10

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - New capacity from Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical is ramping up, leading to significant future supply - side pressure. Currently, the peak maintenance season in petrochemical plants temporarily offsets the new capacity expansion pressure. Propane prices are weak, with PDH - based PP profit and PDH operating rate being acceptable, but cost - side support is weak. Polyolefin downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with factories mainly making rigid purchases. PE downstream agricultural film operating rate has a slight rebound, while packaging film demand is weak. PP downstream industries like plastic weaving have narrow fluctuations, and the demand side is expected to remain weak. Polyolefin mid - and upstream inventories are slowly being depleted, but the total inventory is higher year - on - year, and the short - term fundamental weak reality continues [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7279元/吨（-38），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（-24），LL华北现货为7190元/吨（-60），LL华东现货为7280元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7060元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 89元/吨（-22），LL华东基差为1元/吨（+18），PP华东基差为 - 14元/吨（+24） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 81.1% (+2.1%), PP operating rate is 76.9% (+0.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 141.5 yuan/ton (+131.5), PP oil - based production profit is - 338.5 yuan/ton (+131.5), PDH - based PP production profit is 271.1 yuan/ton (-141.6) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not detailed in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 70.6 yuan/ton (-93.9), PP import profit is - 505.6 yuan/ton (-44.6), PP export profit is 30.2 US dollars/ton (+5.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.6% (+0.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.7% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.1% (-0.1%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.8% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Polyolefin mid - and upstream inventories are slowly being depleted, and the total inventory is higher year - on - year [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Downward - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [3]