工业硅&多晶硅日报-20250805

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of industrial silicon 2509 closed at 8,360 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.5%, and the position decreased by 18,176 lots to 176,000 lots. The main contract of polysilicon 2509 closed at 48,720 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.28%, and the position decreased by 12,729 lots to 98,000 lots [2]. - The policy expectations for polysilicon have peaked, and its valuation has reached a bottleneck. The market's focus has shifted to industrial supply pressure and weak demand. Spot prices are anchored to cost, and the futures center follows the premium of high - quality warehouse receipts. News of capacity integration gives the futures market a phased premium [2]. - Continuously track the opportunity to short SI and long PS during the centralized integration of polysilicon capacity and the resumption of production in the southwest of industrial silicon. Industrial silicon will be based on the cost after the cancellation of electricity price subsidies, and the resumption of production in the southwest will be the marginal driving factor [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Day - to - Day Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,660 yuan/ton on August 1 to 8,365 yuan/ton on August 4, a decrease of 295 yuan/ton. Spot prices of various grades also generally declined, with the price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropping to 9,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowing to 510 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 204, and the total social inventory decreased by 5,400 tons [2][4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 49,200 yuan/ton on August 1 to 48,720 yuan/ton on August 4, a decrease of 480 yuan/ton. The price of N - type re - fed silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 3,930 yuan/ton. Polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the total social inventory increased by 0.6 tons [2][4]. - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,500 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - Downstream Product Prices: Include the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][17]. - Inventory: Present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, and social inventory, as well as the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][23]. - Cost and Profit: Display the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [26][28][30]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in commodity research, focus on different aspects of the non - ferrous and new energy industries, and have provided high - quality research reports and services [33][34].