光大期货农产品日报-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. On Monday, corn's weighted contract positions increased while the futures price was weak. Spot trading weakened with prices in Northeast China, North China, and sales areas showing a weak - stable trend. The 9 - month contract fell below 2300 yuan, and the 1 - month contract is under pressure due to expected high yields [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate. CBOT soybean futures rose on Monday, but US soybeans are restricted by large global supplies. In China, soybean meal supply is sufficient, and inventory is rising, but the market expects the inventory peak to pass and the basis to gradually return. A narrow - range oscillation is expected, and 11 - 1, 1 - 5 positive spreads can be considered [2]. - Oils are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil fell on Monday due to concerns about increased production and inventory. In China, the market sentiment is weak, with palm oil falling and soybean oil relatively stable. The overall oils market shows an internal - strong and external - weak pattern, and an intraday trading strategy is recommended [2]. - Eggs are expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. The increase in the number of laying hens has led to a bearish sentiment. On Monday, the near - month egg contracts fell significantly, and the spot price also declined. The fundamental bearish pattern remains unchanged, and the futures price may weaken further [2]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. The 2509 pig futures contract showed a slight decline on Monday. The supply of pigs is increasing, but terminal demand is weak. Policy support exists, so the price is expected to oscillate. The futures and spot prices are at the important 14000 - yuan/ton level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - India's palm oil imports in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. The total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons [4]. - As of August 1, 2025 (week 31), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key Chinese regions was 582,200 tons, a decrease of 33,300 tons (5.41%) from the previous week and an increase of 3400 tons (0.59%) from the same period last year [4]. - According to SGS, Malaysia's estimated palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease from the same period last month [4]. - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's estimated palm oil inventory in July 2025 was 2.25 million tons (up 10.8% from June), production was 1.83 million tons (up 8% from June), and exports were 1.3 million tons (up 3.2% from June) [4]. - In July, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China led to high oil - mill operating rates. The total soybean crushing volume was 10.1 million tons, basically the same as the previous month and a 14.59% increase year - on - year [5]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - The report presents multiple charts of contract spreads, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [7][9][10][13]. - The report also presents multiple charts of contract basis, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][19][25][27].