Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Wide - range Fluctuation [1] - Glass: Bearish Fluctuation [1] Core Views - Urea: The domestic urea fundamentals have little improvement, but the international market and Indian tender may boost short - term market sentiment. The urea futures price is expected to be bullish in the short term, but one should not be overly optimistic about the upside in the context of supply guarantee and price stability [1]. - Soda Ash: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, but external factors will increase market volatility. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the long - term supply - demand pressure is not optimistic [1]. - Glass: The sentiment in the glass market has declined significantly. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the overall trend of the commodity market and policy orientation. There may be an opportunity for the 9 - 1 spread to return [1]. Market Information Urea - Zhengshang Institute data: On August 4, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 3,373, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 200 [4]. - Longzhong data: On August 4, the daily output of the urea industry was 190,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 14,700 tons from the same period last year; the industry's operating rate was 82.24%, 2.59 percentage points higher than 79.65% in the same period last year [4]. - On August 4, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were: Shandong 1,760 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,760 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), Anhui 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu 1,770 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi 1,650 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - Zhengshang Institute data: On August 4, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 2,790, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast volume was 1,497; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 1,700, unchanged from the previous trading day [6]. - On August 4, the spot prices of soda ash were: North China light soda 1,300 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,400 yuan/ton; Central China light soda 1,250 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,350 yuan/ton; East China light soda 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,400 yuan/ton; South China light soda 1,400 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,450 yuan/ton; Southwest light soda 1,300 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,350 yuan/ton; Northwest light soda 1,120 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,120 yuan/ton [6]. - Longzhong data: On August 4, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 85.47%, compared with 84.75% on the previous working day [7]. - Longzhong data: On August 4, the average price of the float glass market was 1,221 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the daily output of the industry was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts such as the closing price of the urea and soda ash main contracts, the basis of urea and soda ash, the trading volume and open interest of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, the price spreads between different contracts of urea and soda ash, the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [9][10][12][15][17][18]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research. He has won many awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has won many honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [20].
光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250805
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-05 05:08