Research View Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose 0.78% to $9,708.5/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.19% to CNY 78,370/ton; domestic spot imports remained at a loss [1]. - In June, US factory orders decreased 4.8% month-on-month, slightly better than the expected -5% but significantly lower than the previous value of 8.2%; durable goods orders decreased 9.4% month-on-month, lower than both the expected and previous value of -9.3% [1]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 139,575 tons, indicating an end to the phased inventory accumulation; Comex copper inventory increased by 1,360 tons to 236,941 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 20,348 tons; BC copper warehouse receipts remained at 1,553 tons [1]. - During the off - season, terminal orders slowed down, and the procurement rhythm of the processing end maintained at the level of rigid demand. In early August, the market focused on Trump's deadline for Russia, the results of China - US negotiations, etc., and the macro - performance might be weak. There were also concerns about the market's view on US copper in the future under the 0 - tariff policy for US refined copper, the risk of price inversion and inventory relocation, and the contradictions accumulated in the fundamentals during the off - season. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated strongly. Overnight, AO2509 closed at CNY 3,194/ton, up 0.13%, with an increase of 9,804 lots in positions to 139,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. Overnight, AL2509 closed at CNY 20,440/ton, down 0.07%, with a decrease of 2,632 lots in positions to 224,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weakly. Overnight, the main contract AD2511 closed at CNY 19,865/ton, down 0.08%, with a decrease of 5 lots in positions to 8,241 lots [1]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded to CNY 3,250/ton. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to CNY 30/ton. The price of Foshan A00 dropped to CNY 20,490/ton, and the price of Wuxi A00 was at a discount of CNY 20/ton. The processing fees of aluminum rods in Baotou and Henan remained stable, while those in Xinjiang, Nanchang, Linyi, Guangdong, and Wuxi increased by CNY 10 - 50/ton; the processing fees of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fees of 6/8 - series aluminum rods remained stable, while the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods decreased by CNY 31/ton [1]. - The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights of Shunda and Alufa led to an expected increase in supply. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of imports from Indonesia, the surplus pressure of alumina increased. The production of cast ingots from the replacement capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on the aluminum price center. The aluminum alloy in the off - season might follow the logic of Shanghai aluminum, and there was an expectation of spread repair in the peak season of 2511. In August, the supply - demand pattern of the aluminum industry was expected to shift from the upstream to the downstream [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.57% to $15,105/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.61% to CNY 120,640/ton. Yesterday, LME inventory remained at 209,082 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 21,170 tons [2]. - In terms of nickel ore, the domestic trade price of nickel ore slightly decreased, and the premium of Indonesian nickel ore slightly decreased. For stainless steel, the raw material prices were differentiated. The transaction price center of nickel iron moved up to CNY 920/nickel point. Due to the previous slowdown in production and the strengthening of prices, the inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the stainless - steel crude steel output in August was expected to increase month - on - month [2]. - For primary nickel, the domestic inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis, and the output in August was expected to increase 2% month - on - month to 33,000 tons. In general, in the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. The fundamentals changed little overall, with support from the prices of nickel iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above, and the prices continued to fluctuate [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - water copper on August 4, 2025, was CNY 78,395/ton, up CNY 90 from August 1; the flat - water copper premium was CNY 155, up CNY 5 from August 1. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained at CNY 73,000/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by CNY 10 to CNY 60 [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 139,575 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 20,348 tons; total inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons. Comex inventory increased by 1,602 tons to 235,579 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 20.0 million tons [3]. - Other data: The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by $9.3 to - $49.8/ton; the CIF bill of lading price remained at $59.0/ton; the active contract import loss increased by CNY 50 to CNY - 53.6/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was CNY 16,750/ton, up CNY 150 from August 1; the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China remained at - CNY 150; the price difference between the first and second consecutive contracts of SHFE lead remained at - CNY 10. The price of tax - included recycled refined lead (≥pb99.97) and recycled lead (≥pb98.5) increased by CNY 125 to CNY 16,725/ton, and the price of tax - included reduced lead in Shandong decreased by CNY 50 to CNY 14,350/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 274,225 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 941 tons to 59,007 tons; weekly inventory increased by 29 tons to 63,283 tons [3]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $7.2, the CIF bill of lading price was $105.00, and the active contract import loss decreased by CNY 120 to CNY - 302/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi quotation was CNY 20,470/ton, down CNY 60 from August 1; the Nanhai quotation was CNY 20,490/ton, down CNY 30 from August 1; the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 30 to CNY 20; the spot premium was - CNY 30, down CNY 10 from August 1. The price of low - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at CNY 600/ton, and the price of high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at CNY 640/ton. The FOB price of alumina remained at $377/ton, and the price of Shandong alumina remained at CNY 3,220/ton; the domestic - foreign price difference of alumina remained at CNY 202; the price of pre - baked anodes remained at CNY 6,332/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 925 tons to 463,725 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,009 tons to 46,649 tons; total inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,527 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained at 0.0 million tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons to 4.6 million tons [4]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $49.65, the CIF bill of lading price was $107.50, and the active contract import loss increased by CNY 20 to CNY - 1171/ton [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel plates was CNY 122,500/ton, up CNY 650 from August 1; the Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 300 to CNY 2,550; the 1 imported nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 250 to CNY 750. The price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained at CNY 3,200/ton, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron (10 - 15%) remained at $0. The price of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port remained at CNY 465/ton, and the price of 1.8% nickel ore from the Philippines at Lianyungang decreased by CNY 2 to CNY 659/ton. The price of 304 No1 in Foshan and Wuxi increased by CNY 25 to CNY 12,425/ton; the price of 304/2B coils (both rough - edged and trimmed) in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The price of domestic nickel sulfate (≥22%) decreased by CNY 300 to CNY 32,300/ton, and the prices of domestic 523 and 622 ordinary products decreased by CNY 2,000 to CNY 213,000/ton and CNY 227,000/ton respectively [4]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 209,082 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 21,170 tons; weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons to 25,750 tons; stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons. The nickel social inventory (SHFE + Nanchu + hidden) decreased by 795 tons to 39,486 tons, and the stainless - steel social inventory data was invalid [4]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $228, the CIF bill of lading price was $85.00, and the active contract import loss increased by CNY 70 to CNY - 1085/ton [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main contract settlement price on August 4, 2025, was CNY 22,205/ton, down 0.6% from August 1; the LmeS3 price was $2,505.5/ton, unchanged from August 1; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.86, down from 8.92 on August 1; the near - far month price difference increased by CNY 15 to CNY 5. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by CNY 130 to CNY 22,170/ton and CNY 22,100/ton respectively; the domestic spot premium average increased by CNY 30 to CNY 20; the imported zinc premium average increased by CNY 30 to - CNY 10. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by $1.75 to $2.5. The prices of zinc alloys Zamak3 and Zamak5 decreased by CNY 130 to CNY 22,795/ton and CNY 23,345/ton respectively, and the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) decreased by CNY 100 to CNY 21,200/ton [5]. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons; LME inventory decreased by 3,825 tons to 97,000 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons to 8.72 million tons. SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 75 tons to 14,907 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5,725 tons to 51,350 tons [5]. - Import profit and loss: The active contract import profit was CNY 0, up from - CNY 1,558 on August 1; the CIF bill of lading price was $135 [5]. Tin - Market prices: The main contract settlement price on August 4, 2025, was CNY 266,150/ton, up 0.7% from August 1; the LmeS3 price was $27,540/ton, down 2.1% from August 1; the Shanghai - London ratio was 9.66, up from 9.39 on August 1; the near - far month price difference increased by CNY 140 to - CNY 240. The SMM spot price increased by CNY 1,200 to CNY 265,800/ton. The prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by CNY 2,600 to CNY 257,500/ton and CNY 253,500/ton respectively. The domestic spot premium average remained at CNY 700, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by $15.5 to - $0.5 [5]. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 254 tons to 7,671 tons; LME inventory decreased by 50 tons to 1,900 tons. SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 7 tons to 7,293 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 1,390 tons [5]. - Import profit and loss: The active contract import profit was CNY 0, up from - CNY 25,128 on August 1; the tariff was 3% [5]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums, SHFE near - far month price differences, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, spanning from 2019 to 2025 [6 - 48]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers [51].
有色商品日报-20250805
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-05 05:06