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股指期货将偏强震荡,黄金、白银、铁矿石、豆粕期货将偏强震荡,玻璃期货将震荡偏弱,焦煤、纯碱期货将偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-05 05:22

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 5, 2025, including the bias towards strong or weak oscillations, and provides resistance and support levels for each contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On August 4, 2025, the stock index futures IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 all showed a trend of opening slightly lower and then rising. The broader market also opened lower and closed higher, with the ChiNext 50 leading the gains. A - share trading volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The number of new A - share accounts in July increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Brokerage institutions are generally optimistic about the market outlook [13][15][16]. - On August 4, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures both opened higher, with the ten - year showing a slight upward trend and the thirty - year continuing to rebound. The central bank conducted 5448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 490 billion yuan. The short - term Shibor rates declined. The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated since April, reaching a new high in July [35][39][40]. - On August 4, 2025, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.85% and COMEX silver futures up 1.40%. International oil prices fluctuated downward, with the U.S. oil main contract down 1.62% and the Brent crude main contract down 1.38%. London base metals mostly rose, with LME zinc up 0.99%, LME copper up 0.81%, and LME nickel up 0.79%. The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the U.S. dollar index also rose slightly [9][10][12]. 2. Futures Market Forecast for August 5, 2025 Stock Index Futures - IF2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 4087 and 4100 points and support levels at 4052 and 4035 points [2]. - IH2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 2785 and 2800 points and support levels at 2770 and 2763 points [2]. - IC2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 6215 and 6275 points and support levels at 6169 and 6130 points [2]. - IM2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 6700 and 6750 points and support levels at 6642 and 6590 points [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The ten - year treasury bond futures T2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 108.60 and 108.65 yuan and support levels at 108.43 and 108.37 yuan [2]. - The thirty - year treasury bond futures TL2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 119.6 and 120.0 yuan, with support levels at 119.1 and 118.9 yuan [2]. Precious Metal Futures - The gold futures AU2510 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 786.8 and 791.2 yuan/gram, with support levels at 781.8 and 778.5 yuan/gram [2]. - The silver futures AG2510 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 9100 and 9166 yuan/kg, with support levels at 9008 and 8985 yuan/kg [3]. Base Metal Futures - The copper futures CU2509 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 78200 and 78000 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78600 and 78900 yuan/ton [3]. - The aluminum futures AL2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 20370 and 20300 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 20540 and 20600 yuan/ton [3]. - The alumina futures AO2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 3162 and 3121 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3247 and 3274 yuan/ton [3]. - The zinc futures ZN2509 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 22350 and 22420 yuan/ton and support levels at 22220 and 22130 yuan/ton [3]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The industrial silicon futures SI2511 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 8220 and 8100 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 8450 and 8500 yuan/ton [3]. - The polysilicon futures PS2511 is likely to oscillate weakly in a wide range, with support levels at 47700 and 47100 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 49400 and 50400 yuan/ton [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures LC2511 is likely to oscillate in a wide range, with support levels at 67900 and 66900 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 71100 and 72200 yuan/ton [4]. - The rebar futures RB2510 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 3174 and 3160 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 3224 and 3236 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil futures HC2510 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 3449 and 3473 yuan/ton and support levels at 3400 and 3366 yuan/ton [4]. - The iron ore futures I2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 800 and 804 yuan/ton, with support levels at 790 and 787 yuan/ton [4]. - The coking coal futures JM2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1120 and 1092 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1166 and 1180 yuan/ton [4]. - The glass futures FG509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1050 and 1032 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1102 and 1112 yuan/ton [4]. - The soda ash futures SA509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1225 and 1206 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1265 and 1285 yuan/ton [6]. - The crude oil futures SC2509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 502 and 500 yuan/barrel and resistance levels at 514 and 519 yuan/barrel [6]. - The PTA futures TA509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 4664 and 4644 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 4698 and 4720 yuan/ton [6]. - The PVC futures V2509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 4922 and 4900 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 5020 and 5046 yuan/ton [6]. - The methanol futures MA509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 2372 and 2359 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2385 and 2393 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Futures - The soybean meal futures M2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 3050 and 3071 yuan/ton, with support levels at 3014 and 3000 yuan/ton [6]. - The palm oil futures P2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 8926 and 9000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 8800 and 8770 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Macro - economic Information - The central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for risk - based customer due diligence of financial institutions. For overseas remittances over 5000 yuan or the equivalent of 1000 US dollars, the remitter's identity needs to be verified. Payment institutions need to register when selling prepaid cards over 10,000 yuan at one time [7]. - In July, the SLF had a net withdrawal of 3 billion yuan, the MLF had a net investment of 100 billion yuan, the PSL had a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan, the short - term reverse repurchase had a net investment of 188 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase had a net investment of 200 billion yuan. There were no open - market treasury bond transactions in July [7]. - In the first half of the year, China's service import and export volume reached 3.88726 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports were 1.6883 trillion yuan, up 15%, and imports were 2.19896 trillion yuan, up 3.2%. The service trade deficit was 510.66 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 152.21 billion yuan [7]. - Experts and institutions expect the new social financing in July to increase year - on - year. Wang Qing believes that the new social financing in July will be about 1.7 trillion yuan, continuing the large - scale year - on - year increase from the previous month. It is expected that the central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements again around the end of the third quarter [8]. - Beijing has introduced 16 measures to promote the development of future industries, focusing on areas such as urban transportation and medical health, and exploring the opening of application demonstration scenarios [8]. - Shanghai has issued policies to support enterprises in basic research, with a maximum one - time subsidy of 10 million yuan and tax incentives for basic research [8]. - Hainan has proposed 20 specific measures to accelerate the cultivation of three future industries: seed industry, deep - sea, and aerospace, and to strengthen tropical characteristic high - efficiency agriculture. The goal is that by 2027, the added value of the four leading industries will account for about 70% of GDP [8]. - U.S. President Trump said that India is reselling a large amount of Russian oil in the open market for huge profits and will significantly increase the tariffs imposed on India [9]. - The EU will suspend the implementation of the tariff counter - measures against the U.S. that were originally scheduled to take effect on August 7 for six months and continue to cooperate with the U.S. to finalize a joint statement on trade [9]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts within the year are still an appropriate adjustment [9].