现货价格稳中上涨，豆粕维持震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - For both the soybean meal and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [4][7] Core View - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of stable and rising spot prices with a fluctuating trend. The corn market saw a weak start in the month and a slight rebound at the end. Both markets are currently in a situation of supply exceeding demand, and future price trends need to focus on policy changes, new - season crop conditions, etc. [3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3024 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.47% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2678 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M09 - 44, down 4 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was M09 - 114, up 6. In Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was M09 - 134, up 6. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was RM09 - 48, down 3 [1] - US Data: In June, the US soybean crush was 197.1 million bushels, down 3.22% from May, up 7.44% from the same period last year, and close to the market expectation of 196.6 million bushels. The US soybean oil inventory at the end of June was 1.893 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.863 billion pounds [2] - Indian Data: In the first 9 months of the 2024/25 season, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 3.93 million tons, up 93.6% from the same period last year [2] Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2284 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2664 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was C09 + 36, up 13 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2800 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton, and the basis was CS09 + 136, up 84 [4] - Argentine Data: As of July 30, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest progress was 88%, and the cumulative harvest was 4.39 million tons. The national average yield was 7.23 tons/hectare, and the annual output was expected to be 4.9 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. The 2025/26 Argentine wheat planting progress was 98.3%, and the planting area was expected to be 6.7 million hectares, up 6.3% year - on - year [4] - US Data: In June, the total consumption of corn for ethanol production and other uses in the US was 498 million bushels, slightly increasing month - on - month. Corn for beverage ethanol production was 3.06 million bushels, down 20% month - on - month and 24% year - on - year. Corn for fuel ethanol production was 448 million bushels, up 1% month - on - month and slightly up year - on - year [5] 2. Market Analysis Soybean Meal - Supply: The domestic arrival volume has been high this month, and the soybean meal inventory has further increased. The supply in the domestic market will remain loose in the short term. With positive policy expectations and a strong expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, the future supply may be even more abundant [3] - Demand: Downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and mainly purchase on - demand according to previous contracts. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [3] - Price: Affected by macro factors, the soybean meal price first rose and then fell this month, and the overall fundamentals have not changed significantly [3] Corn - Supply: In the first half of the month, due to the import corn auction, traders sold their goods, increasing the market supply and driving down the futures and spot prices. In the second half of the month, as the auction transaction rate decreased, the supply decreased, and the corn price stopped falling and stabilized [6] - Demand: Feed enterprises mainly replenished their inventory as needed, and the demand was weak [6] - Price: The corn price was weak in the first half of the month and rebounded slightly at the end. The fundamentals of old - crop corn are unlikely to change significantly, and the new - season corn has not been listed yet [6] 3. Strategy - For both the soybean meal and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [4][7]