甲醇日报：累库周期，基差维持弱势-20250805

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The methanol market shows a pattern where the inland is stronger than the ports. Overseas methanol production has a short - term decline from the peak but remains at a relatively high level, leading to continued pressure on port arrivals and inventory accumulation. Inland coal - based methanol had concentrated maintenance in July, with supply at a low level, and some maintenance is still scheduled in August in the northwest. The overall demand in the inland has sufficient resilience, while the port basis is weak [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][22]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in the East China region, and various import price differences, such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between different international regions and CFR China [26][33]. 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - The report shows data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [35][36]. 4. Regional Price Differences - Multiple figures illustrate regional price differences, such as the price difference between Lubei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc. [40]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53]. Group 4: Market Data Inland Market - Coal price: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 460 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Production profit: Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 690 yuan/ton (+20). - Spot prices: Inner Mongolia North Line is 2085 yuan/ton (+20), Inner Mongolia South Line is 2080 yuan/ton (+30), Shandong Linyi is 2360 yuan/ton (+15), Henan is 2220 yuan/ton (-15), Hebei is 2235 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Basis: Inner Mongolia North Line basis is 295 yuan/ton (+23), Lunan basis is 170 yuan/ton (+18), Henan basis is 30 yuan/ton (-12), Hebei basis is 105 yuan/ton (+3). - Inventory and orders: Longzhong inland factory inventory is 324,520 tons (-15,310), Northwest factory inventory is 216,000 tons (+8,000); Longzhong inland factory pending orders are 230,725 tons (-14,107), Northwest factory pending orders are 112,000 tons (-6,500) [1]. Port Market - Spot prices: Taicang methanol is 2368 yuan/ton (-17), Changzhou methanol is 2440 yuan/ton, Guangdong methanol is 2375 yuan/ton (-10). - Basis: Taicang basis is - 22 yuan/ton (-14), Guangdong basis is - 15 yuan/ton (-7). - International price: CFR China is 269 US dollars/ton (-3). - Import price difference: East China import price difference is 11 yuan/ton (+8). - Inventory: Longzhong port total inventory is 808,400 tons (+82,600), Jiangsu port inventory is 419,000 tons (+10,000), Zhejiang port inventory is 153,000 tons (+15,000), Guangdong port inventory is 155,000 tons (+32,500). - Downstream operating rate: Downstream MTO operating rate is 85.27% (+0.32%) [2]. Regional Price Differences - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 45 yuan/ton (-20), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 267 yuan/ton (-37), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 242 yuan/ton (-32), Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 108 yuan/ton (+32), Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 173 yuan/ton (+7), East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 62 yuan/ton (-17) [2]. Group 5: Strategies - Unilateral: Stay on the sidelines. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high. - Cross - variety: Narrow the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread when it is high [4].