纯苯苯乙烯日报：EB未延续累库，基差反弹-20250805

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory decreased slightly without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but the开工 of CPL and styrene has declined, and there is still some pressure on finished product inventory in the downstream, with the开工 of phenol - ketone also dropping. On the supply side, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China will impact the market, and BZ processing fees will continue to consolidate at a low level. For styrene, port inventory peaked and declined in the first week, port basis rebounded, and downstream提货 volume increased, indicating the emergence of speculative demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Domestic EB开工 remains high, and there is still pressure for inventory accumulation, especially as the开工 of downstream PS and ABS is still low. The recommended strategies are to remain on the sidelines for both pure benzene and styrene in the single - side trading. For basis and inter - period trading, short the spread between near - month BZ paper cargo and distant - month BZ2603 when the spread is high, short the BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread when it is high, and short the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread when it is high. For cross - product trading, short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 205 yuan/ton (- 15). The spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 65 yuan/ton (+ 10 yuan/ton), and the spread between the first - month and third - month contracts of pure benzene is also presented in the report [1][11] - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 14 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the first - month and third - month contracts of styrene is also included in the analysis [1][17] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee of pure benzene is 153 dollars/ton (+ 0 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 140 dollars/ton (+ 2 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea price difference is 66.8 dollars/ton (- 7.1 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid are - 1595 yuan/ton (+ 0), - 560 yuan/ton (+ 51), - 160 yuan/ton (- 47), and - 1332 yuan/ton (+ 7) respectively [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 243 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 16.30 million tons (- 0.70 million tons), and the operating rate data of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 90.21% (- 0.69%), 73.00% (- 5.00%), 73.94% (+ 0.28%), and 64.80% (+ 0.00%) respectively [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 159,000 tons (- 5,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 66,500 tons (- 1,000 tons), and the operating rate is 78.9% (+ 0.1%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 218 yuan/ton (- 55 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 54.25% (- 0.95%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 32 yuan/ton (+ 15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 53.30% (+ 1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 152 yuan/ton (- 173 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 65.90% (- 0.92%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The operating rate is 90.21% (- 0.69%), and the production profit is - 1595 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Phenol - ketone: The operating rate is 73.00% (- 5.00%), and the production profit is - 560 yuan/ton (+ 51) [1] - Aniline: The operating rate is 73.94% (+ 0.28%), and the production profit is - 160 yuan/ton (- 47) [1] - Adipic acid: The operating rate is 64.80% (+ 0.00%), and the production profit is - 1332 yuan/ton (+ 7) [1]