原油日报：无视特朗普二级关税威胁，油价继续回落-20250805

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.04 to $66.29 per barrel, a decline of 1.54%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell 91 cents to $68.76 per barrel, a decline of 1.31%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.28% at 510 yuan per barrel [1] - Eight OPEC + member countries reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking the organization's completion of the current - stage supply recovery plan one year ahead of schedule and full withdrawal from the 2.2 million barrels - per - day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December [1] - The Russian Federal Foreign Intelligence Service reported that the British intelligence agency plans to create an ecological disaster in international waters and blame Russia for threatening international navigation safety. The UK plans to instruct Ukrainian armed personnel to carry out "terrorist actions" at sea and pressure the Trump administration to impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy [1] - US President Trump ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines in response to the "provocative" remarks of Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev [1] - After the new round of US sanctions, at least two ships carrying Russian oil originally bound for Indian refineries have changed their routes. Trump also threatened to impose a 100% tariff on countries buying Russian oil unless Russia reaches a major peace agreement with Ukraine [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Due to the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariffs, India is avoiding purchasing some Russian crude oil. However, India imports 2 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day, accounting for 45% of its total crude oil imports, and there are no other willing buyers under the threat of secondary tariffs, so India has limited room to maneuver, and the recent oil price reaction has been negative [2] Group 3: Strategy - The oil price will fluctuate in the short - term range and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [4]