天然与合成橡胶日评：天然橡胶震荡运行，合成橡胶震荡偏弱-20250805

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of natural rubber may fluctuate due to increased precipitation in production areas affecting the tapping process and the decline in tire operating rates. The price of synthetic rubber may fluctuate weakly due to the decrease in raw material costs and inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene rubber [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Market Data - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of natural rubber was 15,585. The trading volume on August 1 was 329,655 lots, and the open interest on the same day was 211,258 lots. The registered warrant volume on August 4 was 176,640 [1]. - The basis of natural rubber showed different spreads in different regions. For example, the Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -50 on August 4, and the Shandong - Shanghai spread was 50 [1]. - The monthly spreads of natural rubber, such as near - month to continuous - first, continuous - first to continuous - second, and continuous - first to continuous - third, also had corresponding changes [1]. Synthetic Rubber Market Data - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of synthetic rubber was 12,415. The trading volume on August 1 was 73,266 lots, and the open interest on the same day was 49,311 lots. The registered warrant volume on August 4 was 10,540 [1]. - The basis of synthetic rubber and its monthly spreads also had specific changes [1]. Supply - side Situation - In natural rubber production areas, there will be precipitation in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and domestic areas such as Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan in the coming days, with less precipitation in Hainan [1]. - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 69.33%, up 2.9% from last week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, the same as last week. The operation of synthetic rubber - related product plants remained relatively stable [1]. Inventory - side Situation - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 208,430 tons, a decrease of 2,380 tons from last week. The weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 19,600 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from last week, and the bonded area inventory was 88,900 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week [1]. - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,988 tons, an increase of 12 tons from last week [1]. Cost - side Situation - Global natural rubber supply has entered the peak season, and major domestic and foreign production areas are fully tapped. On August 4, 2025, the purchase price of glue in the Hat Yai market, Songkhla Province, Thailand was 62 Thai baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber glue in the Hainan market was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 650 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - OPEC+ decided to increase production in September. Coupled with the decline in employment data, the crude oil price is expected to weaken, and the price of upstream raw materials has decreased. As of August 4, 2025, the average daily price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 7,022.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Demand - side Situation - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 61.06%, a decrease of 3.94% from last week, and the weekly operating rate of Chinese semi - steel tires was 74.63%, a decrease of 0.87% from last week [1]. - In June, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The sales of passenger cars were 2.336 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month, and the sales of trucks were 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month. The demand for tire matching has increased [1].