天然与合成橡胶日评：天然橡胶震荡运行合成橡胶震荡偏弱-20250805

Report Title - Natural and Synthetic Rubber Daily Review 20250805: Natural Rubber to Fluctuate, Synthetic Rubber to Weaken [2] Market Data Summary Natural Rubber - Closing prices on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 14365, 14310, and 15585 respectively [1] - Volumes on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 252447, 329655, and -77208 respectively [1] - Open interests on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 190262, -1952, and 188310 respectively [1] - Registered warehouse receipts on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 177630, 182020, and 176640 respectively [1] Synthetic Rubber - Closing prices on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 11395, 11455, and 12415 respectively [1] - Volumes on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 160791, 55081, and 73266 respectively [1] - Open interests on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 33939, 31806, and 49311 respectively [1] - Registered warehouse receipts on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 10340, 9840, and 10540 respectively [1] Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - In major natural rubber producing regions such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, there will be precipitation in the coming days. In China, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan will also see rainfall, while Hainan will have less [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 69.33%, up 2.9% from the previous week, and that of styrene-butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from the previous week [1] Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly operating rate of all-steel tires in Shandong was 61.06%, down 3.94% from the previous week, and that of semi-steel tires in China was 74.63%, down 0.87% from the previous week [1] - In June, the retail sales of the national automobile market reached 2.904 million units, an increase of 217,700 units from the previous month. Passenger car sales were 2.336 million units, an increase of 184,300 units from the previous month, and truck sales were 316,000 units, an increase of 24,500 units from the previous month [1] Cost and Inventory Analysis Cost - As of August 4, 2025, the purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand, was 62 Thai baht per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 14,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 650 yuan per ton from the previous day [1] - OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, combined with the decline in the employment data of the refinery, the price of crude oil is expected to weaken, and the price of upstream raw materials has decreased [1] Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 208,430 tons, a decrease of 2,380 tons from the previous week, the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 19,600 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from the previous week, and the bonded area inventory was 88,900 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,988 tons, an increase of 12 tons from the previous week [1] Core View - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate due to increased precipitation affecting tapping and a decline in tire operating rates [1] - Synthetic rubber prices may weaken due to falling raw material costs and rising inventories [1] - Attention should be paid to the support levels of natural rubber around 1880-14000 and the resistance levels around 15000-15200, and the support levels of butadiene rubber around 10800-11000 and the resistance levels around 11700-11900 [1]