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集运日报:SCFIS微幅下调市场氛围偏空盘面偏弱震荡近期波动较大不建议继续加仓设置好止损-20250805
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-08-05 05:47

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The shipping market is currently facing a complex situation with geopolitical conflicts, tariff uncertainties, and fluctuating freight rates. Due to the high difficulty of market gaming, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. The short - term market may rebound, and different trading strategies are proposed for different contracts, but overall, risk control through stop - loss settings is emphasized [1][4]. 3. Content Summary 3.1 Freight Rate Index - SCFIS and NCFI: On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index on August 1 was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; the US West route was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [2]. - SCFI and CCFI: On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points; the European line price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; the US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; the European route was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; the US West route was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - Eurozone: In July, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI preliminary value was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2]. - China: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3]. - US: In July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [3]. 3.3 Market Events - Trump's tariff policy: Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market [4]. - Geopolitical events: On August 3, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces launched three "special military operations" against Israeli military targets and a port. Israel's national security minister entered the Al - Aqsa Mosque area, which was condemned by Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract and take partial profits when there is a profit margin of over 300 points. For the EC2512 contract, it is recommended to go short lightly and take profits. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and no position - holding against losses is recommended, with stop - losses set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try lightly with a small position [4]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before making further decisions [4]. 3.5 Contract Information - On August 4, the main contract 2510 closed at 1421.8, down 0.72%, with a trading volume of 3.03 million lots and an open interest of 5.11 million lots, a decrease of 1323 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].