中共中央政治局召开会议，资金面均衡偏松，债市明显回暖

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the central bank conducted continuous net injections, leading to a balanced and slightly loose liquidity situation. The bond market showed a significant recovery, while the main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, with most individual convertible bonds declining. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased, and yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies also mostly rose [1]. Summaries by Directory I. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan. It emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and taking measures in multiple aspects such as supporting innovation, consumption, and resolving local government debt risks [3]. - The CPC Central Committee held a symposium with non - Communist Party personages, with General Secretary Xi Jinping stressing the need to adhere to the general principle of making progress while maintaining stability in the second half of the year, aiming to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [4]. - The central government plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for child - rearing subsidies this year, with the central finance bearing about 90% of the funds for the national basic standard [4][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission solicited public opinions on guiding the layout and investment of government investment funds to prevent homogenization and crowding - out effects [5]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued a notice to regulate the book - building issuance and underwriting in the inter - bank bond market from August 11, 2025 [6]. (2) International News - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Some members advocated a 25 - basis - point rate cut, and Fed Chairman Powell dampened market expectations of a September rate cut [7]. - The U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, reversing the Q1 decline and exceeding expectations. The core PCE price index was 2.5%, down from the previous value but higher than expected. However, there are concerns about the economic recovery, such as weakening domestic demand [9]. (3) Commodities - On July 30, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, while international natural gas prices continued to fall. WTI crude oil rose 1.36% to $70.99 per barrel, Brent crude oil rose 1.47% to $73.47 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 1.72% to $3266.90 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.89% to $3.016 per ounce [10]. II. Liquidity (1) Open Market Operations - On July 30, the central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 158.5 billion yuan [12]. (2) Funding Rates - Due to continuous net injections by the central bank on July 30, the liquidity was balanced and slightly loose, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. For example, DR001 dropped 4.81bp to 1.315%, and DR007 dropped 4.67bp to 1.518% [13]. III. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - Rate Bonds - Spot Bond Yield Trends: After the Political Bureau meeting on July 30, the bond market recovered significantly. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 dropped 2.75bp to 1.7200%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210 dropped 3.25bp to 1.8040% [16]. - Bond Tendering Results: Details of the tendering results of several agricultural bonds, including the issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples, were provided [17]. (2) Credit Bonds - Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies: On July 30, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Yangcheng 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising over 747% [17]. - Credit Bond Events: Multiple credit - related events occurred, such as asset freezes of some companies, changes in credit ratings, and cancellations of bond issuances [18]. (3) Convertible Bonds - Equity and Convertible Bond Indices: On July 30, the A - share market weakened in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 0.77% and 1.62% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, and most individual convertible bonds declined [20]. - Convertible Bond Tracking: Companies such as Hang Lung Properties reported their performance, and there were announcements regarding bond payments, revisions of conversion prices, and decisions on early redemptions [23][24][25]. (4) Overseas Bond Markets - U.S. Bond Market: On July 30, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 8bp to 3.94%, and the 10 - year yield rose 4bp to 4.38%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds narrowed [26][27]. - European Bond Market: On July 30, the 10 - year UK government bond yield dropped 4bp, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies mostly rose [29]. - Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of July 30 were presented, including the price changes, credit entities, bond codes, and other information of top - rising and top - falling bonds [31].