碳酸锂日评：情绪切换速度快、波动大-20250805

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market remain weak, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to short on rebounds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - Futures Prices: On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 69,200 yuan/ton (+700), the closing price of the continuous - one contract was 68,920 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the continuous - two contract was 69,040 yuan/ton (-200), and the closing price of the continuous - three contract was 69,040 yuan/ton (-200) [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active lithium carbonate futures contract was 247,898 lots (-92,772), and the open interest was 207,770 lots (-8,333) [1]. - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipt was 12,603 tons (+5,998), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while the downstream inventory was tight [1]. - Price Spreads: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was 280 yuan/ton (+700), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 120 yuan/ton (+200), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - Spot Prices: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spread between them was 2,100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Cost and Supply - Cost: The price of spodumene concentrate increased to 760 US dollars/ton (+5), while the price of mica remained flat [1]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate decreased last week [1]. Downstream Demand - Last Week: The production of lithium iron phosphate decreased, while the production of ternary materials increased. The production of power batteries decreased [1]. - August: The production of lithium carbonate decreased, while the production of lithium hydroxide increased. The production of energy - storage batteries increased [1]. Terminal Demand - New Energy Vehicles: In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow year - on - year but declined month - on - month. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers were 1.18 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4% [1]. - 3C Products: The shipment volume was average [1].