沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加+E4:K30-20250805

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand. The total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been rising, indicating that there is still room for the Shanghai copper price to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,330 yuan, down 70 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 62,389 lots, a decrease of 18,554 lots; the open interest was 163,558 lots, a decrease of 4,113 lots; the inventory was 20,348 tons, a decrease of 1 ton; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,420 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 90 yuan, up 160 yuan from the previous day. The spot discounts in Guangzhou, North China, and East China were -55 yuan, -120 yuan, and 30 yuan respectively, with changes of -40 yuan, 0 yuan, and -5 yuan [2]. - The spreads between near - month and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper showed different changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract was 20 yuan, up 30 yuan [2]. - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 4, 2025, was 9,708.5 US dollars, up 75.5 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 139,575 tons [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 4, 2025, was 4.456 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars from the previous day, and the total inventory was 261,180 tons, an increase of 3,265 tons [2]. Industry News - Mitsubishi Materials Corporation is considering reducing the copper concentrate processing volume of its Onahama Smelting Co., Ltd. After the scheduled equipment maintenance from October to November this year, it plans to reduce the copper concentrate processing volume through partial facility shutdowns while maintaining the processing volume of electronic waste to improve the utilization rate of recycled materials and profitability [2]. - Non - formal miners in Peru have suspended negotiations with the government and may resume protests due to differences in the negotiations. The government refuses to adjust the August 17 deadline and requires miners to transfer explosives to formal "powder magazines" [2]. Supply and Demand Situation - European high - quality scrap steel exports are restricted, and Chinese importers can only purchase steel shot or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to a low direct import of US scrap copper by traders. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window [2][3]. - Some copper smelters at home and abroad are facing production adjustments. For example, Glencore's PASIAR copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and Zhongkuang Resources' Isunebag plant in Namibia has suspended production due to a shortage of copper concentrate supply [3]. - Some new projects are under construction or planned to be put into production. For example, Jianggang Hongyuan's second - phase project with an annual output of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi at the end of March, and the 200,000 - ton high - purity copper project in Baotou Jinshan Economic Development Zone started construction on June 24 [3]. Investment Strategy - Due to the expected increase in domestic crude copper production and the possible decrease in electrolytic copper production and import in August, and the increase in total electrolytic copper inventory at home and abroad, it is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3].