美债策略月报：2025年8月美债市场月度展望及配置策略-20250805

Group 1 - The report indicates that July economic data shows downward pressure, with non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations but structural weaknesses evident, and domestic demand components significantly declining [3][4][73] - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market reached new historical highs in July, while U.S. Treasury yields experienced a notable rebound [4][13] - The report suggests that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may reach a new low of 3.6%, breaking the previous low of 3.8% in April [3][7] Group 2 - The report notes that the total issuance of U.S. Treasuries in July was $2.51 trillion, an increase from the previous month's $2.3 trillion [19][20] - It mentions that the demand for U.S. Treasuries has weakened marginally due to the lower attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields compared to European and Japanese government bonds after currency hedging costs [7][21] - The report states that the issuance of short-term Treasury bills (T-Bills) increased significantly, with a total issuance of $2.37 trillion in July, compared to $1.62 trillion in June [20][27] Group 3 - The report discusses the macroeconomic environment, indicating that the FOMC maintained the policy rate at 4%-4.25% during the July meeting, reflecting a more cautious outlook on economic uncertainty [62][63] - It highlights that the labor market remains resilient, with non-farm payrolls adding 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing expectations [73][79] - The report emphasizes that inflationary pressures are expected to remain moderate, with the CPI rising by 0.3% month-on-month in June, aligning with expectations [73][74] Group 4 - The report outlines the strategy for the U.S. Treasury market, recommending specific instruments such as TLT, TMF, and 10-year and above Treasury futures [3][7] - It suggests that the current economic conditions may lead to a "soft landing," but if the Federal Reserve misjudges inflation, it could result in a "hard landing" scenario [106] - The report indicates that the Treasury market is expected to experience high volatility due to ongoing economic pressures and potential shifts in monetary policy [7][49]