能源与碳中和热点报告：原油：OPEC+将提前完成增产，俄罗斯供应变数上升

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for crude oil [5] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, oil prices will be affected by the change in the US stance towards Russia, with an upward risk. The potential decline in Russian exports due to the US threat of imposing secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil has not been fully priced in. The short - term volatility of oil prices is expected to increase. In the medium to long term, the risk of supply glut remains high [3][21] Summary by Directory OPEC+ to Exit 2.2 million b/d Voluntary Cuts One Year Ahead - On August 3, 2025, OPEC+ decided to increase the production target by 547,000 b/d in September 2025. The eight countries will adjust the voluntary cut exit process flexibly according to market conditions. OPEC+ will exit the 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts (and a 300,000 b/d production baseline increase for the UAE) one year ahead, with the September production target rising to around 36.3 million b/d [8] - OPEC+ actual production adjustment lags behind the increase in production targets, and the expectation of the peak demand season has supported the slight upward shift of the oil price fluctuation range since July [8] - In June 2025, OPEC+ total production was 34.69 million b/d, slightly lower than the agreement target. The production of 8 voluntary - cut countries increased by 394,000 b/d, with a slower - than - planned increase but a faster growth rate than the previous month. Iraq and Russia's production was still below the target, while Kazakhstan continued to over - produce, and Saudi Arabia's production was significantly higher than the target due to temporary measures [11] - After exiting the 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts, there are still two layers of cuts to be exited. Saudi Arabia may accept lower oil prices for some time to pressure other members. After the seasonal demand weakens, the risk of inventory build - up is high, and the current baseline expectation is that OPEC+ may pause further production increases after the September increase [15] US Threatens to Increase Sanctions, Risk of Russian Export Disruptions Rises - US President Trump has pressured Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine by August 8, threatening to impose secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. The EU has also announced the 18th round of sanctions against Russia [18] - The "secondary tariff" measure may lead to more complex tariff frictions between the US and China or India, and have a negative impact on the economy and oil demand. Indian refineries have increased crude oil purchases from non - Russian markets. If the tariffs are implemented, Russian exports may decline. However, the market is still skeptical about whether the US will severely crack down on Russian energy exports [19] Investment Advice - Since the third quarter, oil prices have been relatively strong. The supply glut risk is not prominent during the peak demand season, but the contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals may emerge after the seasonal demand weakens. The US tariff policy may further suppress demand growth expectations, and the long - term risk of supply glut remains high [21]