债券策略月报：2025年8月中债市场月度展望及配置策略-20250805

Group 1: Market Overview - The economic data for July showed a stable performance, with policy stimulus expectations driving market trends, particularly following the announcement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station project, which has an investment scale of over 1 trillion yuan, leading to significant increases in equity and commodity markets [3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index recorded increases of 3.74% and 5.32% respectively, reflecting improved market risk appetite [3][4] - The bond market underperformed due to negative factors such as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect and unexpected tightening of liquidity around tax periods, resulting in rising yields across different maturities [4][11] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains mixed, with GDP growth around 5.35% year-on-year, but nominal growth remains weak at 3.9% [5][35] - Manufacturing PMI for June was recorded at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold, suggesting potential economic slowdown in the third quarter [5][35] - The central bank's monetary policy appears hawkish, reducing expectations for further rate cuts in the near term [5][35] Group 3: Bond Market Strategy - Looking ahead to the third quarter, demand remains weak, and short-term policy stimulus expectations are retracting, but the cooling of commodity and stock markets may provide support for the bond market [6][35] - There is potential for a 10-12 basis point downward adjustment in the yields of 10-year and 30-year government bonds, indicating attractive returns for investors [3][6] - The strategy suggests early positioning in varieties that can absorb incremental funds as a favorable approach [6][35] Group 4: Government Bond Issuance - In July, government bond issuance pressure was higher than in June, with local government bonds net issuance reaching 1.2135 trillion yuan, marking it as the second-highest month of net issuance this year [21][22] - The net issuance of treasury bonds in July was 593.3 billion yuan, with expectations for increased supply in August and September [21][22] - The anticipated net issuance scale for government bonds in August and September is projected to be 1.47 trillion and 1.14 trillion yuan respectively, indicating a heavier supply pressure in August [21][22] Group 5: Funding Conditions - The central bank's liquidity injections have led to a decrease in funding costs, with the average rates for DR001 and R001 falling to 1.45% and 1.39% respectively [26][27] - The funding environment for August is expected to remain stable, with historical data suggesting limited changes in funding rates compared to July [27][34] - The net cash flow from the central bank in July was 300 billion yuan, indicating continued support for liquidity in the market [26][27]