Guoxin Securities·2025-08-05 07:00Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [1][5][4] Core Viewpoints - The industry is entering the mid-year performance period, with a focus on the 2025 World Robot Conference. The July car market is expected to grow primarily due to the "trade-in and scrapping" policies, with an estimated retail market of 1.85 million narrow passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [1][3] - The long-term outlook emphasizes the rise of domestic brands and opportunities in incremental components driven by electric and intelligent trends. In the short term, the strong new product cycle of Huawei and the first year of the Xiaomi automotive industry chain are highlighted [3][12] - The report suggests that under the geopolitical backdrop, the automotive sector as a domestic consumption product is likely to see increased stimulus policies, favoring passenger cars and domestically replaced components [3][12] Monthly Production and Sales Data - In July, the narrow passenger car retail market is projected to be around 1.85 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 7.6% and a month-on-month decline of 11.2%. New energy vehicle retail is expected to be approximately 1.01 million units, with a penetration rate of 54.6% [1][22] - Weekly data indicates that from July 1 to 27, the national passenger car retail reached 1.445 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9% but a month-on-month decline of 19% [1][2] Weekly Market Performance - For the week of July 28 to August 1, the CS automotive index fell by 2.26%, with the CS passenger car index down by 2.73%. The CS electric vehicle sector saw a decline of 5.01% [2][3] - The CS automotive sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.08 percentage points but underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.88 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 10.97% [2][3] Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Leap Motor, Geely, and JAC are rated as "Outperform the Market" with varying earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [4][5] - Leap Motor is expected to have an EPS of -0.05 in 2025, while Geely is projected to have an EPS of 1.36 [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the rise of domestic brands and opportunities in incremental components, particularly in electric and intelligent sectors. Specific recommendations include: - Vehicle manufacturers: Leap Motor, JAC, Geely - Intelligent technology: Kobot, Huayang Group, Junsheng Electronics - Robotics: Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Shuanghuan Transmission - Domestic replacements: Xingyu Co., Fuyao Glass, Jifeng Co., New Spring Co., Horizon Robotics [3][12][24]