Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-08-05 07:05Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The new fiscal and tax policies announced on July 31 will have a limited impact on the net profits of insurance companies, with a short-term effect estimated to be within 1% [4][6] - Insurance companies can mitigate the impact of the new VAT on newly issued government bonds through asset allocation strategies, such as shifting towards high-dividend equities [6] Summary by Relevant Sections - Impact of New Tax Policies: The announcement to restore VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025, will not significantly affect the actual revenue and profits of insurance companies due to the continued exemption from corporate income tax [4][5] - Quantitative Analysis: Using China Pacific Insurance as an example, the report estimates that the VAT payment on new bonds could amount to approximately 2.3 million yuan, which is about 0.51% of the net profit for the year [5][6] - Long-term Projections: In an extreme scenario where all bonds are new after ten years, the VAT payment could rise to 23.5 million yuan, representing 5.2% of the net profit, but the financial impact remains manageable as companies can adjust their asset allocations [5][6] - Recommended Companies: The report recommends companies with ideal asset-liability duration matching, such as China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, as well as New China Life for its favorable equity returns [6]