商品期货早班车-20250805

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Core Viewpoints - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting to go long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, suggesting to short silver on rallies [1]. - For aluminum, the Fed's rate - cut expectation increases and the dollar index weakens, but downstream consumption has not improved, and aluminum ingot inventory continues to accumulate, so the aluminum price has limited upside space and may fluctuate, suggesting to wait and see [2]. - For zinc, with significant supply - side pressure and prominent consumption - end off - season characteristics, it is recommended to short on rallies [2]. - For lead, with a deepening pattern of weak supply and demand, it is recommended to wait and see mainly and wait for signals of inventory reduction or secondary lead production cut [3]. - For industrial silicon, after the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, the trading logic may return to fundamentals, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, suggesting to wait and see [3]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamental situation is marginally improving, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range [3]. - For polysilicon, due to policy message disturbances, the price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. - For steel, the supply - demand of steel is relatively balanced, with obvious structural differentiation, and it is recommended to wait and see mainly and close short positions [5]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand is marginally neutral to strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For coking coal, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose but improving, and it is recommended to wait and see mainly and close short positions [5]. - For soybean meal, the US soybeans are in a weak stage, and the domestic situation is affected by tariff policies, with internal - external differentiation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the weather in production areas and tariff policies [6]. - For corn, due to the suppression of substitutes and the approaching of new grain listing, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - For sugar, the futures market is recommended to short on rallies, and sell call options [8]. - For cotton, it is recommended to buy on dips and adopt a range - trading strategy between 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton [8]. - For logs, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For palm oil, it is in a short - term weak seasonal cycle but is recommended to be overweighted in the medium - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to production in production areas and biodiesel policies [8]. - For eggs, due to large supply pressure, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - For pigs, with strong supply and weak demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [9]. - For LLDPE, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies [10]. - For PVC, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - For glass, the price has limited downside space, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - For PP, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies [11]. - For styrene, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies [11]. - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling call options [11]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Market Performance: On Monday, precious metals continued to strengthen and rebound. The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 0.34% to $3,373 per ounce, and the international silver price denominated in London silver rose 1.06% to $37.413 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months. Domestic gold ETF funds flowed back. COMEX gold inventory increased by 2 tons to 1,204 tons, and SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 35 tons. London's June gold inventory was 8,774 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 24 tons to 1,183 tons, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory increased by 7 tons to 1,326 tons last week, COMEX silver inventory increased by 44 tons to 15,758 tons, and London's June silver inventory increased by 421 tons to 23,788 tons. India's silver imports in June were about 200 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares, decreased by 34 tons to 15,021 tons [1]. - Trading Strategies: Go long on gold; short silver on rallies [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2509 contract increased by 0.07% to 20,525 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 110 yuan/ton. The LME price was $2,582.5 per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, it was the traditional consumption off - season, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract increased by 1.99% to 3,162 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 61 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina was stable. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly operating capacity increased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see [2]. Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.13% to 22,260 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 10 yuan/ton in Back structure, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was 11 dollars/ton in Con structure. The social inventory on August 4 was 10.73 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.41 million tons from July 31 [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply - side pressure was significant. In August, zinc ingot production was expected to increase by 1.8 million tons to 62.15 million tons month - on - month, mainly due to the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity. The processing fee jumped, and refinery profits exceeded 1,500 yuan/ton, stimulating production. The consumption - end off - season characteristics were prominent, and the galvanizing/die - casting operating rates dropped to 56.77% and 48.24% respectively. Typhoon weather exacerbated the weak demand. The low inventory of LME and macro negatives (strong dollar, tariff uncertainty) formed a tug - of - war [2]. - Trading Strategies: Short on rallies [2]. Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the lead 2508 contract increased by 0.12% to 16,700 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 60 yuan/ton in Con structure. The social inventory on August 4 was 7.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from July 31 [3]. - Fundamentals: The pattern of weak supply and demand deepened. On the supply side, secondary lead producers were reluctant to sell due to losses, and primary lead production increased slightly. On the consumption side, the battery operating rate remained stable at 71.86%, and some enterprises built inventories on dips. The core contradiction was that secondary lead losses restricted supply release. If social inventory reduction or secondary lead production cuts were realized, the price might stop falling. Policy - makers should pay attention to the potential impact of the "Heavy Metal Rectification Plan" on major production provinces [3]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see mainly and wait for signals of inventory reduction or secondary lead production cut [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Monday, the market opened low and fluctuated. The main 11 - contract closed at 8,370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased by 26,771 lots to 167,569 lots. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 204 lots to 50,312 lots today [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the resumption of production in the southwest region contributed the main increase this week, and a total of 5 furnaces were newly opened nationwide. Both social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the operating rate of polysilicon increased week - on - week, and the transaction price in the industrial chain increased. The output of silicone increased slightly, and the industrial chain price remained stable. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy entered the consumption off - season, and the operating rate was relatively stable [3]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The LC2509 contract closed at 68,920 yuan/ton (+60), an increase of 0.09%. The import spodumene concentrate index was 755 (-11) dollars/ton. The production of lithium iron phosphate in August was 311,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1%, and the production of ternary materials reached 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%. This week, the inventory started to decline due to supply reduction, and the sample inventory was 141,700 tons (-1,444 tons). The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased to 12,603 lots after cancellation [3]. - Fundamentals: The reduction expectation of lithium mines in Jiangxi cannot be falsified for the time being, and the fundamentals are marginally improving [3]. - Trading Strategies: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Monday, the market opened low and fluctuated. The main 11 - contract closed at 48,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 610 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the open interest increased by 7,405 lots to 106,749 lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,200 lots [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly output climbed rapidly, and there was still an expectation of resumption of production due to the increase in the number of warehouse receipts. The industry inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in August met expectations, basically flat compared with July. The photovoltaic installation demand market in the third quarter was pessimistic, and the new photovoltaic installation in June decreased by 38% year - on - year. Some downstream products began to pass on price increases [3]. - Trading Strategies: The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. Black Industry Steel - Market Performance: The main 2510 - contract of rebar fluctuated upwards and closed at 3,197 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The building material inventory in the Gangyin口径 increased by 3.5% to 4.112 million tons compared with the previous week, and increased by 1.1% last week. The rebar delivery in Hangzhou over the weekend was 63,000 tons, compared with 58,000 tons last week; the inventory was 606,000 tons, compared with 630,000 tons last week and 848,000 tons in the same period last year. The supply - demand of building materials was neutral, and the inventory pressure was small due to low production. The demand for plates was stable, and direct and indirect exports remained at a high level, with continuous inventory reduction. The absolute inventory and inventory days remained at historical lows. Overall, the supply - demand of steel was relatively balanced, with no significant total - quantity contradiction but obvious structural differentiation. The futures discount of steel remained at a low level, and the valuation was slightly high [5]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see mainly and close short positions. The reference range for RB10 is 3,150 - 3,220 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2509 - contract of iron ore fluctuated upwards and closed at 797.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The arrival of iron ore was 26.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 million tons. The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.32 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.24 million tons. The port inventory was 143 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 890,000 tons. The supply - demand of iron ore remained marginally neutral to strong. The pig iron output in the Custeel口径 decreased slightly week - on - week but increased by about 1% year - on - year. The fourth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the fifth round was proposed. The profit of steel mills was marginally narrowed, and the subsequent production would be stable. The supply side conformed to seasonal rules and decreased slightly year - on - year. The supply - demand of iron ore was marginally neutral to strong, and due to the high base of pig iron demand, it was expected that the subsequent iron ore inventory accumulation would be slower than the seasonal rule. Iron ore maintained a forward - discount structure, but the absolute level remained at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation was neutral [5]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see. The reference range for I09 is 770 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2601 - contract of coking coal fluctuated upwards and closed at 1,126 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The pig iron output in the Custeel口径 decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.407 million tons week - on - week, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. The profit of steel mills was marginally stable, and the subsequent production would be stable. The fourth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the fifth round was proposed. The inventory at each link on the supply side was differentiated. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants remained at relatively low levels in the same period of history, while the inventory at pits, ports and other links continued to remain at historical highs. At the same time, the production and pit inventory decreased week - on - week. The overall supply - demand was still relatively loose but improving. The futures price was at a premium to the spot price, and the forward - premium structure was maintained. The futures valuation was high [5]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see mainly and close short positions. The reference range for JM01 is 1,090 - 1,150 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The CBOT soybeans rebounded overnight [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply was loose, and the long - term supply was also expected to be large. The good - quality rate of US soybeans was at a high level. On the demand side, South America dominated in the short - term, and US soybean exports were in a weak - demand expectation due to tariff policies [6]. - Trading Strategies: Pay attention to the weather in production areas and tariff policies [6]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn 2509 contract fluctuated weakly, and the spot price of corn decreased slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: Wheat had high cost - effectiveness and replaced the feed demand for corn. The weak wheat price suppressed the corn price. The auction of imported grains increased the market supply, and the low transaction rate reflected weak market sentiment. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The easing of the trade situation increased the import expectation. The early - spring corn was approaching the market, and the cost of new - crop corn decreased significantly, suppressing the long - term price expectation. The spot price of corn was expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - Trading Strategies: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,709 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract was 297 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processing after tax with out - of - quota was 436 yuan/ton [