瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand remains relatively stable, with industry expectations gradually improving under policy guidance. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply remains high but growth slows down, and demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventory has a slight accumulation, and long - term expectations are still positive after policy - guided optimization. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply slightly contracts and demand weakens during the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,560 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,227 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum was 70 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; that of alumina was 12 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Positions and Inventories: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 225,945 lots, down 1,091 lots; that of the alumina main contract was 124,750 lots, down 4,932 lots. The LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 11,500 tons, down 2,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 463,725 tons, up 925 tons. The Shanghai Aluminum inventory in the SHFE was 117,527 tons, up 1,737 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipts in the SHFE were 46,649 tons, down 2,009 tons [2]. - Other Indicators: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 11,315 lots, up 9,377 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.00, up 0.02. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,005 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,520 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,460 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis and Premiums: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 45 yuan/ton, down 665 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium/discount was - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 2.62 dollars/ton, up 0.02 dollars. The basis of alumina was - 5 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Utilization: The alumina production was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points; the alumina开工 rate was 84.01%, up 1.52 percentage points [2]. - Supply and Demand: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons. The import of alumina was 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons; the export of alumina was 17.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons [2]. - Scrap Aluminum: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; that in Shandong metal scrap was 15,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import of aluminum scrap was 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export of aluminum scrap was 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply - related: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity was 4,520.70 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum开工 rate was 97.68%, up 0.03 percentage points; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 49.70 million tons, down 30,781 tons. The production of aluminum materials was 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons [2]. - Trade - related: The import of primary aluminum was 192,314.50 tons; the export of primary aluminum was 19,570.72 tons, down 12,523.35 tons. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 49.00 million tons, down 6.00 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy was 2.58 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Production: The automobile production was 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. - Real Estate: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 9.50%, down 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 9.31%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 9.48%, down 0.0006 [2]. - Put - Call Ratio: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.22, down 0.0494 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Macroeconomic News: Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting in September, and may cut by 50 basis points if the unemployment rate rises further. Analysts expect the central bank to cut interest rates and reserve requirements around the end of the third quarter [2]. - Industry - specific News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue steady - growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The expected wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in July were 1.18 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. In August, the new - house supply decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [2].