Minsheng Securities·2025-08-05 08:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company holds a leading position in three major glass business segments, with continuous growth momentum driven by increasing internationalization. The revenue growth rates for the Greater China and overseas markets in H1 2025 are -20% and +16%, respectively. The company is expected to maintain a positive growth outlook despite the float glass market being at a historical low [5][14] - The revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 20.7 billion, 20.4 billion, and 20.8 billion yuan, with year-over-year changes of -7.5%, -1.1%, and +1.7%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.2 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.6 billion yuan, with year-over-year changes of -6.3%, +6.1%, and +7.9%, respectively [5][14] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In H1 2025, the company's total revenue was 9.8 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 10% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 14%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1 billion yuan, down 60% year-over-year but up 18% quarter-over-quarter. The float glass business faced significant pressure due to declining demand [12] - The float glass revenue in H1 2025 was 5.4 billion yuan, down 16% year-over-year and 17% quarter-over-quarter, with a gross margin of 17.8%, a decrease of 10.5 percentage points year-over-year but an increase of 8.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The average market price for 5mm white glass in H1 2025 was 70 yuan per box, down 27 yuan year-over-year and 4 yuan quarter-over-quarter [12] Segment Analysis - The automotive glass segment showed resilience with revenues of 3.3 billion yuan, up 11% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter. The gross margin improved to 54.5%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-over-year [13] - The building glass segment reported revenues of 1.1 billion yuan, down 22% year-over-year and 33% quarter-over-quarter, with a gross margin of 29.7%, which improved by 1.3 percentage points year-over-year [13] Financial Projections - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenue and profit from 2025 to 2027, with a projected EBITDA of 6.68 billion, 6.99 billion, and 7.45 billion yuan for the respective years. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.72, 0.76, and 0.82 yuan [15]