瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 5, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1182.0, up 6.92%, hitting the daily limit during the session, and two far - month contracts closed at the daily limit. The market sentiment fluctuates due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Fundamentally, the overall mine - end inventory is decreasing, the clean coal inventory is shifting from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises, the cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [2]. - On August 5, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1634.5, up 3.16%, and the fifth round of price increase in the spot market was implemented. Affected by high - temperature factors, the power consumption load of the State Grid hit a new high for the third time on August 4. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory has rebounded, the current hot metal output is 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 1.52 million tons, the hot metal output is at a high level, the coal mine inventory is no longer under pressure, and the inventory is shifting downstream. The total coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 45 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1182.00 yuan/ton, up 41.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1634.50 yuan/ton, up 19.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 804,920.00 lots, up 8,071.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 52,738.00 lots, up 2,384.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 JM contracts: - 107,217.00 lots, down 7,376.00 lots; net position of the top 20 J contracts: - 7,202.00 lots, down 3.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9 month contract spread: 147.00 yuan/ton, up 11.50 yuan; J1 - 9 month contract spread: 73.50 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 937.00 yuan/ton, up 57.00 yuan; Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke: 1665.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade I metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main contract basis: 218.00 yuan/ton, down 41.00 yuan; J main contract basis: 30.50 yuan/ton, up 35.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 2.771 billion tons, down 154,300 tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 1.6639 billion tons, down 92,300 tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 61.51%, down 0.80 percentage points; raw coal output (monthly): 42.1074 billion tons, up 1.779 billion tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports (monthly): 3.304 billion tons, down 300,000 tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 193,600 tons, down 1,200 tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly): 4.9394 billion tons, down 181,000 tons; coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly): 2.709 billion tons, up 205,700 tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 9.9273 billion tons, up 73,500 tons; total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 736,200 tons, down 65,000 tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 8.0379 billion tons, up 42,800 tons; coke inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 6.2669 billion tons, down 132,900 tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (weekly): 12.87 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 steel mills (weekly): 11.17 days, down 0.28 days [2]. - Coking coal imports (monthly): 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports (monthly): 510,000 tons, down 170,000 tons [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly): 4.06438 billion tons, down 5,890 tons; coke output (monthly): 4.1703 billion tons, down 67,300 tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 73.69%, up 0.24 percentage points; profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly): - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 83.48%, unchanged; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 8.3184 billion tons, down 336,100 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The peak - season market of the container shipping market has not arrived, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has declined for 8 consecutive weeks. As of August 1, the SCFI index dropped 41.85 points to 1550.74 points, a weekly decline of 2.62% [2]. - Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, causing Indian ETFs listed in the US to turn down. The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months. Switzerland is facing a "negotiation race" to reduce tariffs by 39%, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy [2]. - Trump will select a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in three to four days [2]. - The China Federation of Machinery Industry stated that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will soon issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment [2].