股指日报：外部偏好传导，乐观得续-20250805

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View - Overnight, influenced by the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the U.S. stocks soared due to the trading of economic expectation repair, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose 1.33%. Affected by this information, the morning review suggested that the sentiment might be optimistically driven, which was basically verified by today's stock market trend. At the industry level, the robot concept has been strong in recent days, and the financial and real - estate sectors also led the rise. At the futures index level, after the small - cap futures index has been strong for many days, today's trading data shows that IF and IM tend to have long - position additions, while IC and IM tend to have short - position closures, and the subsequent strength may switch. In terms of trend, the previous view is maintained. Due to the lack of obvious positive pull, it is difficult to have continuous rises, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate around the current central level [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index continued to rise, and the small - cap stocks maintained their strength. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 97.31 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH rose with increasing volume, while IC and IM rose with decreasing volume, and the sentiment of large - cap futures indexes was positive [3] Important Information - China's S&P Services PMI in July rose to 52.6, the highest since May last year. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September, with three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts. The bank also said that if the next employment report shows a further rise in the unemployment rate, the Fed may cut interest rates by an additional 50 basis points [4] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.84 | 8.0521 | 0.3421 | 25.564 | 0.1005 | | IH | 0.83 | 4.0737 | 0.2218 | 9.2725 | 0.066 | | IC | 0.66 | 6.5859 | - 1.1728 | 21.5144 | - 0.1806 | | IM | 0.90 | 15.5305 | - 3.3934 | 32.9938 | - 0.711 | [6] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.96 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.59 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 3.12 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 15960.81 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | 975.31 | [7]