甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250805

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - "Anti - involution" sentiment recedes, the market returns to fundamentals, and the methanol industry is weak after excluding macro - interference. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to downstream resistance and the port - inland price difference [4] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, volatility is 10.56%, and historical percentile is 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, volatility is 15.24%, and historical percentile is 78.5% [3] Methanol Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management (High Product Inventory, Fear of Price Drop): To prevent inventory losses, short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. Buy put options (MA2509P2250) and sell call options (MA2509C2350) with a 50% and 45 - 60% hedging ratio respectively [3] - Procurement Management (Low Standing Inventory, Purchase Based on Orders): To prevent price increases, buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. Sell put options (MA2509P2300) with a 75% hedging ratio to reduce procurement costs [3] Core Contradictions - Xingxing's shutdown is confirmed, changing the previous non - shutdown expectation. Iranian shipments in July exceeded expectations by about 50,000 tons, reaching 753,000 tons. Combined with poor port提货 due to typhoons, there is high port arrival pressure in August, increasing 08 warehouse receipts. Downstream profits are poor, and although Baofeng maintained inland prices this week, other downstream sectors are weak in following the price increase [4] Negative Factors - This week, it is expected that foreign vessels will arrive at scattered ports, with sufficient arrival volume, and port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [5]