股指日报：资金情绪有所降温，8月有回踩预期-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the popularity of major financial concepts such as stablecoins ebbed, the market mainly engaged in thematic speculation around "anti - involution" and the Yaxia Hydropower Station in July. There were signs of increasing divergence in funds regarding the cyclical style at the end of the month, and the market was in a relatively strong oscillatory state [3] - In August, there are limited expected macro - level positives. Domestically, after the tone - setting of the Political Bureau meeting, there are no obvious over - expected clues in the short term, and the policy is mainly about implementation. Overseas, Sino - US trade negotiations are ongoing, and issues like the change of the Fed Chairman will indirectly affect foreign investors' willingness to participate in the A - share market [3] - Investors are advised to prepare for defense in August. In the first half of the month, there may be a phased pull - back in stock indices due to strengthened technical pressure. In a six - month perspective, the four major indices are expected to approach the 2023 highs, with small - cap indices like CSI 500 and CSI 1000 performing better in a liquidity - easing cycle [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for risk - based customer due diligence of financial institutions. For remittances of over RMB 5,000 or foreign currency equivalent to $1,000, the identity of the remitter should be verified [5] - Beijing has introduced 16 measures to promote the development of future industries, focusing on areas such as urban transportation and medical health, and exploring the opening of application demonstration scenarios [5] 3.2 Stock Index盘面回顾 (Stock Index Market Review) - In the previous trading day, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.55%, the CSI 300 rose 0.39%, the CSI 500 rose 0.78%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.04%. The precious metals (+3.84%) and aerospace and military industries (+3.59%) led the gains, while the education (-0.72%) and automobile (-0.66%) sectors lagged. There were more than 3,800 rising stocks and 70 daily limit stocks, indicating a good profit - making effect [5] - The daily and weekly lines maintained an upward trend, indicating short - term market strength, while the monthly line remained in an oscillatory state [5] - The trading volume of the A - share market dropped to around 1.5 trillion yuan, and the trading enthusiasm declined marginally [5] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - After the decline of major financial concepts, the market had new themes in July, and there were signs of divergence in the cyclical style. In August, with limited macro - level positives, investors should be defensive, especially in the first half of the month. In the medium - term, small - cap indices are expected to perform better [3] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - In futures operations, it is recommended to switch to a defensive state temporarily, choose to wait and see or conduct short - term long positions intraday. Buying on dips is a good opportunity, and IH - IM can be pre - arranged on the left side [4] - In options operations, the implied volatility of stock index options has decreased. During the narrow - range oscillation period, the cost - effectiveness of participating in options is not high, and it is recommended to wait for a second wave of rising volatility [4]