Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-05 09:02Report Overview - Report Title: Plastic Industry Daily Report 2025-08-05 [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558) - Assistant Researcher: Xu Tianze (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03133092) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - L2509 fluctuated strongly and closed at 7323 yuan/ton. The supply side saw the restart of previously shut - down plants, with last week's PE production up 3.31% to 63.55 million tons and capacity utilization up 2.14% to 81.97%. The demand side had the average downstream product start - up rate up 0.3%, with the agricultural film start - up rate stable. Production enterprise inventory decreased 13.94% to 43.28 million tons, and social inventory increased 2.49% to 57.57 million tons, with low overall inventory pressure. In the short - term, PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise. In the long - term, new production capacity will increase supply pressure. Demand is weak, and L2509 is under pressure. Technically, pay attention to the support around 7200 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7323, up 44; 1 - month contract was 7387, up 36; 5 - month contract was 7374, up 31; 9 - month contract was 7323, up 44 - Volume was 183396 hands, down 81362; Open interest was 301516 hands, up 1254 - 1 - 5 month contract spread was 13, up 5 - Futures前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) was 325807, up 11056;卖单量 was 342832, up 6077;净买单量 was - 17025, up 4979 [2] Spot Market - LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) was 7284.35, down 32.61;华东(日,元/吨) was 7367.62, down 17.86 - Basis was 5.35, up 5.39 [2] Upstream Situation - FOB:中间价:石脑油:新加坡地区(日,美元/桶) was 62.75, down 2.13; CFR:中间价:石脑油:日本地区(日,美元/吨) was 584.63, down 19.25 - 乙烯:CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) was 831, unchanged; CFR东北亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) was 821, unchanged [2] Industry Situation -开工率:PE:石化:全国(日,%) was 81.09, up 2.12 [2] Downstream Situation -开工率:聚乙烯(PE):包装膜(周,%) was 48.7, up 0.63;管材(周,%) was 28.67, down 0.16;农膜(周,%) was 12.63, unchanged [2] Option Market - 历史波动率:20日:聚乙烯(日,%) was 12.58, up 0.17; 40日:聚乙烯(日,%) was 13.41, up 0.04 - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率:聚乙烯(日,%) was 11.15, up 3.87;平值看涨期权隐含波动率:聚乙烯(日,%) was 11.15, up 3.87 [2] Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, China's polyethylene production was 63.55 million tons, up 3.31% - From July 25th to 31st, the average start - up rate of PE downstream products in China increased by 0.3% - As of July 30th, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 43.28 million tons, down 13.94%; As of August 2nd, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 57.57 million tons, up 2.49% [2]