【资产配置快评】2025年第35期：Riders on the Charts，每周大类资产配置图表精粹-20250805

Employment Data Insights - In July, the U.S. non-farm payroll increased by 74,000, falling short of the expected 110,000[4] - The non-farm payroll figures for May and June were significantly revised down, with May's figure adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000[4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% from May to July, while hourly wages increased year-on-year from 3.8% to 3.9%[4] Data Quality Concerns - The response rate for employment data surveys has declined, with May's non-farm payroll survey response rate at 42.9%, down from 59% pre-pandemic[5] - The response rate for unemployment rate surveys was 67.4%, compared to 82.3% before the pandemic[5] Federal Reserve Insights - The number of dissenting votes in the July Federal Reserve meeting reached the highest level in 32 years, with two members opposing the decision to keep interest rates unchanged[10] - The overall sentiment remains cautious regarding inflation, with concerns about high tariffs impacting inflation levels[12] Market Expectations - Despite disappointing employment data, investor expectations for short-term inflation remain upward, with the 2-year inflation swap dropping from 3% to 2.9%[16] - The broad dollar speculative net short positions decreased to 20,000 contracts, the lowest level since April, reflecting a reduction of over 50% from five weeks prior[12] Equity Risk Premium - As of August 1, the equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index was 5.2%, which is significantly below the 16-year average by more than one standard deviation, indicating potential for valuation uplift[17] Bond Market Insights - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was 18 basis points as of August 1, which is 48 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[22] - The 3-month dollar-yen basis swap was at -19.4 basis points, indicating a more relaxed offshore dollar financing environment[24] Commodity Indicators - The copper-gold price ratio fell to 2.9, while the offshore RMB exchange rate rose to 7.2, indicating a divergence in signals between RMB and copper trends[29] Stock vs. Bond Performance - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds was 24.9 as of August 1, which is below the average level over the past 16 years, suggesting a return to mean performance between equities and fixed income[31]