CMS·2025-08-05 08:55Economic Overview - July PMI data indicates a worsening contraction in manufacturing, with the manufacturing new orders index dropping to 49.4% and the non-manufacturing new orders index hitting a stage low of 45.7%[5][10]. - Industrial production shows signs of concern, with the manufacturing production index falling to 50.5% and the construction business activity index decreasing by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%[10][11]. Production and Consumption - Traditional industries are under pressure due to weak demand and policy adjustments, while emerging sectors exhibit a "production reduction to support prices" characteristic[2][11]. - In July, the output of key enterprises in crude steel and cement saw a month-on-month decline, with cement weekly production dropping to approximately 14 million tons[11]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 2.7%, with infrastructure investment showing improvement due to accelerated special bond issuance and major project commencement[12][14]. - Real estate investment continues to drag, with July's top 100 real estate companies' operating amounts down 12.5% year-on-year, indicating a significant market confidence issue[12][13]. Price Movements - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index rose by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, while the factory price index increased by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%[10][11]. - CPI is expected to decline by 0.1% year-on-year, influenced by seasonal price drops in agricultural products and weak consumer demand[22][23]. Trade and External Factors - July export growth is anticipated to remain stable at 5.5%, with external demand pressures still present despite a marginal slowdown in new export orders[16][18]. - Import growth is projected at 0.5%, supported by infrastructure-related imports, although overall demand remains subdued due to weak real estate investment[16][18]. Fiscal Policy - General public budget revenue is expected to show a slight improvement with a year-on-year change of -0.1%, while expenditure is projected to remain stable at 3.4%[28][14]. - The government is expected to increase spending in key areas such as education and social security, which may provide a boost to overall fiscal performance[28].