Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-05 09:11Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 菜粕观点: Market expectations are affected by multiple factors. In the international market, the high good - rate of US soybeans and good weather in production areas lead to strong expectations of a good harvest, while Sino - US trade tensions limit price increases. Domestically, high oil - mill operation rates and the continuous inventory build - up of soybean meal suppress the price of the meal market. There are expectations of a decline in future pig inventories and promotion of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. For rapeseed meal itself, less rapeseed is expected to arrive in the near - term, reducing supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts seasonal demand. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market has been volatile recently, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - 菜油观点: In the international market, the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and decline in exports may lead to inventory build - up, while the large increase in Indonesian exports, low inventory levels, and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient vegetable oil supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, which restricts prices. However, the decrease in oil - mill operation rates and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce output and supply pressure. Supported by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil prices have also increased, with increased short - term volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Price and Spread: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9615 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2724 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 68 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 285 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [2]. - Position and Warehouse Receipts: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract is 188,408 lots, up 6,762 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract is 413,741 lots, up 13,330 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is 28,488 lots, up 4,039 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is 17,129 lots, down 3,063 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,640 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9,665 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost of rapeseed is 4,852.48 yuan/ton, down 2.9 yuan [2]. - Spreads and Ratios: The oil - meal ratio is 3.62, down 0.02. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 58 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 84 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 780 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Imports: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the domestic rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - Profit and Operation: The import rapeseed crushing profit is 210 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons, down 5 million tons. The weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 16.52%, up 1.59 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import Quantities: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Inventory and Consumption: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.65 million tons, up 1.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.7 million tons, up 0.8 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 55.5 million tons, down 0.77 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 5.7 million tons, up 0.15 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 22.5 million tons, down 3.6 million tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 1.7 million tons, down 1.57 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 2.87 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and Consumption: The monthly production of feed is 2,762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons. The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 22.81%, up 0.23 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 22.81%, up 0.24 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.76%, up 0.7 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 17.65%, up 0.3 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.33%, down 0.83 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.33%, down 0.83 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.68%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.47%, up 0.08 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Canada: In June 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 856,096 tons, a 3% increase from the previous month and a 10.27% increase from the same period last year [2]. - USA: As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year [2].