Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-05 09:07Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint - Short - term supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is not significant, and the spot price fluctuation is expected to be small. SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and technically, attention should be paid to the support around 2450. The impact of chlor - alkali profit on industry operation should be monitored in the future due to continuous subsidies for liquid chlorine in Shandong [3]. 3) Summary by Directory a. Market Data - Futures Market: The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2506 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the futures holding volume was 189,077 lots, down 19,374 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 17,942 lots, down 6,033 lots; the futures trading volume was 752,433 lots, down 277,186 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2592 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan, and the May contract was 2690 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [3]. - Spot Market: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 34 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - Upstream Situation: The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 639 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [3]. - Industrial Situation: The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - Downstream Situation: The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,980 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. b. Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. As of July 31st, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 424,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [3]. c. Viewpoint Summary - Supply: Last week, some plants in Ordos, Junzheng, Zhongtai, and Zhongyan shut down, while the plant in Yidongxing restarted. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.1% to 83.9%. This week, a plant in Southwest China plans to shut down, and a plant in Northwest China will restart, with little expected change in capacity utilization [3]. - Demand: Alumina has good profitability, and its operating rate has rebounded to a neutral level. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber remained stable at 84.97% week - on - week, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing remained stable at 58.9% week - on - week. Currently, there is no planned production cut in the alumina industry, and non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season with weak rigid demand [3]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 3.87% to 424,200 tons [3].