Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-05 09:19Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The raw - material cost support has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly. The production profit of steel mills has improved, and it is expected that the steel production in August will increase. The end of the traditional off - season in the downstream, optimistic expectations for the peak season, and favorable domestic fiscal investment policies are likely to improve the supply - demand pattern. The inventory of domestic stainless steel has been well reduced, and the market inventory pressure has eased. Technically, with a slight increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,960 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 0 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26,760 lots, down 1,983 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 85,949 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 102,865 tons, down 60 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed) in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the SS main contract is 245 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, up 193,200 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,900 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 915 yuan/nickel point, up 5 yuan; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, down 40,700 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, up 2,300 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 30,3643,200 square meters, up 71,807,100 square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, up 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, down 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, down 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may remain as a governor. The EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, which will take effect this week. On the raw - material side, the PNBP policy in Indonesia restricts the supply and increases the cost, but the ferronickel production in Indonesia has rebounded significantly [2].