Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-05 09:24报告行业投资评级 - No investment rating provided in the report 报告的核心观点 - Philippine nickel ore supply has rebounded, but domestic nickel ore port inventories have declined, leading to a tight raw material situation [2] - High raw material prices and a downward trend in nickel prices have caused profit losses for some non - integrated smelters, leading to production cuts [2] - Stainless steel mills' profit margins have been compressed, resulting in production cuts for the 300 - series; new energy vehicle production and sales continue to rise, but ternary battery demand has declined [2] - Recently, nickel prices have fallen, leading to increased spot premiums and decreased domestic social inventories, while overseas LME inventories have increased [2] - Technically, with declining positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears. Attention should be paid to the MA60 pressure level, and short - term fluctuations and adjustments are expected. It is recommended to wait and see [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 期货市场 - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel is 120,910 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is - 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,5105 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars; the position volume of the main contract for Shanghai nickel is 90,543 lots, down 4,924 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel is - 21,786 lots, up 1,182 lots; LME nickel inventories are 211,254 tons, up 2,172 tons [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventories are 25,750 tons, up 299 tons; LME nickel cancelled warrants total 15,870 tons, up 3,558 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai nickel is 20,923 tons, down 247 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,900 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plates from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price for Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price for Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 990 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.74 dollars/ton, down 7.95 dollars [2] 上游情况 - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, up 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 994.36 million tons, up 6.49 million tons [2] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, down 7.57 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of ferronickel is 2.26 million metal tons, down 0.13 million metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 billion tons, up 193.2 million tons [2] 下游情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.4 million tons, down 4.07 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 60.8 million tons, up 0.23 million tons [2] 行业消息 - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may continue as a governor after that [2] - The EU Commission spokesperson said that the EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, and the extension will take effect this week [2]