Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-05 09:33Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The refinery profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased due to rising zinc ore imports, continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees, and a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, leading to a faster increase in supply. The import loss is expanding, resulting in a decrease in imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, it is the off - season, and the processing enterprise operating rate has decreased year - on - year. Zinc prices have fallen recently, and downstream buyers purchase on demand at low prices, but overall trading is still dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has been adjusted downwards. Technically, positions are decreasing, and prices are correcting, with both bulls and bears trading cautiously. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,380 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 20 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,754 dollars/ton, up 24.5 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 205,615 lots, down 5,585 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 3,298 lots, up 5,160 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 14,807 tons, down 100 tons; the SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, up 2,305 tons; the LME inventory is 97,000 tons, down 3,825 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 22,390 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 80 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.87 dollars/ton, up 0.09 dollars - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,950 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - Zinc social inventories are 87,300 tons, up 3,000 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - The monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 13.99%, up 0.19%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 13.99%, up 0.19% - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.22%, down 0.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.61%, down 0.47% [3] 3.7 Industry News - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may continue as a board member. The control of the Fed lies in Powell's hands, not Trump's - The EU Commission spokesman said that according to the agreement between the EU and the US, the EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, and this extension will take effect this week [3]