Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel futures prices show signs of temporary stabilization, with the price matching the cost support of EAF valley electricity. The supply - demand structure has marginally weakened, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is expected to return to the industrial fundamentals. Future price movements depend on pre - parade production restrictions, and the near - term support level is the EAF valley electricity cost [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the steel - coke game has intensified. The coal price is relatively firm, and the market is volatile. The black - commodity sector is expected to be in a volatile state. It is recommended to be bearish on jm09 and take profit on previous cash - and - carry arbitrage [4][5]. - The price fluctuations of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have decreased. The "anti - involution" logic supports the prices. The supply is slightly increasing, and the inventory is being depleted, but the inventory level is still high, and the industry profit has been repaired [5]. - After the relevant meetings, the iron ore market has been volatile. Although the iron - making water output has declined, it remains at a high level. The "anti - involution" policy is likely to continue, and the future supply of iron ore is expected to increase, which will limit the price increase. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below and may rise after adjustment [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures prices showed a small rebound after a decline on Monday, matching the EAF valley electricity cost support. Spot prices declined slightly, and trading volume increased. The supply - demand structure has marginally weakened, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. The "anti - involution" story will diverge. Future price movements depend on pre - parade production restrictions, and the near - term support level is the EAF valley electricity cost [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the steel - coke game has intensified. The coal price is relatively firm, and the market trading volume is average. The futures market opened low and moved high on Monday, with support at the 20 - day line. The market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to be bearish on jm09 and take profit on previous cash - and - carry arbitrage [4][5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The price fluctuations have decreased. The "anti - involution" logic supports the prices. The supply is slightly increasing, and the inventory is being depleted, but the inventory level is still high. The industry profit has been repaired [5]. Iron Ore - After the relevant meetings, the market has been volatile. The iron - making water output has declined but remains at a high level. The "anti - involution" policy is likely to continue, and the future supply of iron ore is expected to increase, which will limit the price increase. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below and may rise after adjustment [5].
黑色金属数据日报-20250805
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-08-05 09:42