日度策略参考-20250805

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Stock Index, Gold, Soybean Oil [1] - Bearish: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Corn (01 Contract), LPG [1] - Sideways: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Alumina, Polycrystalline Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton (01 Contract), Sugar, Corn (09 Contract), Soybeans (01 Contract), Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Urea, PVC, Caustic Soda, Container Shipping (European Line) [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index has resumed a relatively strong trend after short - term "good news exhaustion" trading, with valuation support. It is advisable to go long on the stock index this week [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to rising interest rate cut expectations [1]. - Base metals in the non - ferrous sector are generally under pressure due to weak macro - sentiment and other factors [1]. - Agricultural products show different trends, with some like soybean oil expected to rise and others like corn showing mixed outlooks [1]. - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors, presenting various trends [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After short - term "good news exhaustion" trading, it has resumed a strong trend. The current valuation has support, and the ERP of CSI 300 is at a historical high. It is recommended to go long this week [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warning from the central bank suppresses the upward space [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: Rising interest rate cut expectations are expected to keep the price strong [1]. - Silver: Follows gold but may be mainly driven by fundamentals and is expected to fluctuate [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: US non - farm data is weak, and the ISM manufacturing index has declined. With obvious demand off - season characteristics, the price may further correct [1]. - Aluminum: Weak macro - sentiment and pressured downstream demand lead to a weak price trend [1]. - Alumina: Although news boosts the price, the increase in production and inventory leads to a weak fundamental situation, and the price fluctuates [1]. - Zinc: Short - term upward pressure is large due to inventory accumulation and supply recovery, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - Nickel: US non - farm data slows down, increasing overseas recession concerns. The demand side performs poorly, and the price fluctuates weakly in the short term. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Stainless Steel: Affected by macro factors in the short term, it is recommended to sell high and hedge, and pay attention to spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunities [1]. - Tin: It returns to fundamental trading in the short term, and the driving force is limited under the weak supply - demand pattern [1]. - Industrial Silicon: There are signs of sporadic resumption of production in the southwest, and there are expectations of production cuts in polycrystalline silicon. The policy corrects the anti - involution statement, and the price is bearish [1]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: There are expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform, high market sentiment, and policy correction of anti - involution statement, and the price fluctuates [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: Resource - end disturbances are frequent, short - term downstream replenishment is large but the subsequent space is limited, and the policy corrects the anti - involution statement, and the price is bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Weak exports from Malaysia in July and reduced Indian imports may bring short - term pressure, but the downside support is strong, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Soybean Oil: Tightening Sino - US relations support the price from the cost side of imported soybeans, and exports to India raise the valuation center, which is expected to rise to repair the soybean - palm oil price spread [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to buy low and sell high. Reduced rapeseed production may benefit the far - month market, and it is advisable to wait for long - entry opportunities [1]. - Cotton: The short - term increase in positions is driven by the near - month squeeze logic. The height of the 01 contract is limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to the time window at the end of July and early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - Sugar: It is running strongly, with the bottom - divergence rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the height is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the range of 5600 - 6000 [1]. - Corn: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate due to slow inventory depletion in the south port, weak downstream demand, and high warehouse receipt pressure. The 01 contract is bearish due to autumn harvest pressure and reduced planting costs [1]. - Soybeans: The US market has no weather premium, and Sino - US trade policies have not eased, so the US soybeans are under pressure, but the downside space is limited. The domestic far - month has de - stocking expectations, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical tensions rise due to US threats of sanctions against Russia, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and short - term strong consumption in Europe and the US provides support [1]. - Fuel Oil: Similar to crude oil, affected by geopolitical and consumption factors [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. Cost disturbances and demand recovery balance each other, with limited fluctuations [1]. - Natural Rubber: Short - term rainfall in the production area decreases, inventory depletion is slow, and the commodity market sentiment cools down [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost - end support of butadiene is expected to weaken, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the spot price is lowered. The disk is expected to consolidate, and it is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies and butadiene arrivals in East China [1]. - PTA: Supply has shrunk, the crude oil price is strong, the polyester downstream load has decreased, the port inventory has slightly decreased, and the polyester replenishment willingness is low [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal prices have risen slightly, the commodity sentiment has weakened, the overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance has been postponed, the supply has shrunk, and the market expects less future arrivals [1]. - Short - Fiber: The short - fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, factory maintenance has increased, and the cost follows closely under high basis conditions [1]. - Styrene: The pure benzene price has slightly declined, styrene shipments are active, the device load has increased, and the basis has significantly weakened [1]. - Urea: There are supply contraction expectations, domestic demand has entered the off - season, the macro - sentiment has subsided, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - PVC: The macro - sentiment has subsided, maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The disk fluctuates strongly [1]. - Caustic Soda: Maintenance is coming to an end, the spot price has fallen to a low level, and the premium of caustic soda delivery substitutes has increased [1]. - LPG: Crude oil support is insufficient, the international fundamentals are loose, port propane inventory is high, the CP price in August has dropped significantly, the combustion demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the chemical demand is average. The domestic LPG price is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to tariff policy adjustments [1]. Others - Container Shipping (European Line): There are signs that the freight rate has peaked, European ports are still congested, and there are many additional ships in August [1].