有色金属日报-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish view with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a neutral stance with poor market operability [1] - Alumina: ★★★, representing a clear bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: No rating provided [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish view with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Lead: No rating provided [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: No rating provided [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish view with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, representing a clear bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, suggesting a clear bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Polysilicon: No rating provided [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Copper - The Shanghai copper futures closed with a small gain. The spot copper was reported at 78,615 yuan, with a premium of 130 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. The LME copper inventory increased to over 150,000 tons. There is a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. The resistance of the MA40 moving average to copper prices is strong, and LME copper may decline to $9,500. Hold short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum futures rebounded slightly, with a spot discount of 40 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons. The apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. The short - term may be under pressure to fluctuate, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative. In the short term, the price fluctuates, and in the medium term, it has certain resilience relative to aluminum prices. Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the industry is in a state of surplus. In the short term, it fluctuates weakly, but the decline space is limited [2] Zinc - The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. The weighted position has decreased to 205,600 lots. Refineries have sufficient raw materials, and supply is expected to increase. The demand in the off - season is weak. The 08 contract enters the delivery month, and the 09 and 10 contracts are in the traditional peak season. Pay attention to policy changes. The support level of Shanghai zinc is temporarily seen at 22,000 yuan. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Shanghai lead futures rebounded after stopping the decline. The SMM1 lead average price was reported at 16,600 yuan/ton. The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans from late August to early September. The consumption is the key to the rebound of Shanghai lead. The inventory of lead ingots has decreased, forming support for Shanghai lead. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel futures rebounded, and the market trading was active. The speculation of the anti - involution theme cooled down, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamentals returned to the fundamentals. The inventory of nickel iron remained basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 966,000 tons. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and actively intervene in short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin futures rose during the session, and the current tin price was 267,000 yuan. The overseas tin market has low inventory, but the actual LME Indonesian tin warehouse receipts are small. The export trend of Indonesia is sometimes contrary to the output of PT Timah. Technically, pay attention to the support of the MA60 moving average for tin prices. Hold short positions at high levels [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated weakly, and the market trading volume shrank. After the price fluctuated, a large amount of goods entered the market. The downstream inquiry was active, and the spot market transaction improved. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons. The smelting output decreased by 8% week - on - week. The lithium carbonate futures price has some support after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed up with fluctuations, driven by the sentiment of relevant photovoltaic export policies. The supply in major producing areas increased marginally, and the demand increase in polysilicon in August was uncertain. The weekly inventory of industrial silicon showed a slight accumulation trend. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures main contract pulled up and then fell back, closing above 50,000 yuan/ton. The bullish sentiment comes from the expectation of the adjustment of photovoltaic component export tax rebates. The downstream silicon wafer and battery cell enterprises are expected to slightly increase production. Considering the uncertainty of policy implementation, consider buying call options [10]