市场主流观点汇总-20250805

Market Data Summary - The report presents the closing prices and weekly price changes of various assets as of August 1, 2025, compared to July 28, 2025. Commodities like crude oil had a 2.92% increase, while most others, such as palm oil, soybean meal, and copper, experienced declines. A - shares, overseas stocks, and bonds also mostly saw negative changes, with exceptions like the US dollar index and US dollar mid - price showing increases [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - The report collected views from 8 institutions, with 3 bullish, 2 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors include the upcoming full - scale opening of childcare subsidy applications, the World Artificial Intelligence Conference boosting the tech sector, central bank liquidity injection, and the extension of the tariff buffer period. Bearish factors involve the lack of new policy surprises in the Politburo meeting, reduced A - share trading volume, the Fed's unchanged interest rate, a decrease in ETF shares tracking the CSI 300, and a decline in the July manufacturing PMI [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Seven institutions' views were collected, with 0 bullish, 1 bearish, and 6 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts, the unchanged expectation of loose monetary policy, stable - growth policies not exceeding expectations, and the tax - free advantage of existing bonds. Bearish factors include the taxation of new bonds reducing their attractiveness, positive market risk appetite diverting funds to stocks, and low short - term chasing value [4]. Energy Sector - For crude oil, 8 institutions' views were gathered, with 2 bullish, 3 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are high US refinery operating rates, increased US sanctions on Russian oil, OPEC +'s lower - than - expected production increase, and improved macro sentiment due to a tariff agreement. Bearish factors include lower - than - expected US gasoline consumption, OPEC +'s decision to accelerate production in September, a shift in global oil demand from strong to weak, and a significant downward revision of US non - farm payroll data [5]. Agricultural Products Sector - Regarding live hogs, 8 institutions' views were collected, with 1 bullish, 3 bearish, and 4 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are strong expectations of policy - driven capacity reduction, farmers' resistance to price cuts, a slower slaughter pace, and a potential decrease in August supply after an increase in July. Bearish factors are the large supply of heavy hogs, an expected increase in piglet supply from September to the end of the year, high hog inventories, and suppressed demand due to summer and high temperatures [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Eight institutions' views were gathered, with 0 bullish, 5 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are low domestic aluminum ingot inventories, increased weekly production of aluminum strips and foils, improved downstream profits, and moderate inventory accumulation. Bearish factors are weakening macro sentiment, tariff - affected exports to the US, weakening production and orders of aluminum profiles, and supply pressure during the inventory accumulation phase [6]. Chemicals - Soda Ash - Eight institutions' views were collected, with 0 bullish, 5 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are stable downstream demand, downstream inventory reduction and subsequent replenishment needs, and potential short - covering rallies. Bearish factors are long - term over - capacity issues, a return to fundamental trading due to weakening macro sentiment, reduced demand expectations for photovoltaic glass, and low motivation for producers to cut production [6]. Precious Metals - Gold - Seven institutions' views were collected, with 4 bullish, 0 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are concerns about economic recession due to revised US non - farm payroll data, concerns about monetary policy independence from White House personnel changes, increased safe - haven demand due to a falling US dollar index and a slumping stock market, a technical breakthrough, and the potential for further upward movement after a long consolidation. Bearish factors are reduced uncertainty from US - Japan and US - EU tariff agreements, a hawkish stance from Powell, and potential further rebounds in the US dollar index [7]. Black Metals - Iron Ore - Eight institutions' views were gathered, with 0 bullish, 3 bearish, and 5 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are high steel mill profit margins, a decline in overseas ore shipments, a decrease in port iron ore inventories, and high hot metal production. Bearish factors are an increase in domestic port arrivals, the fading of anti - cut - throat competition trading, lower - than - expected policy strength from the Politburo meeting, an increase in non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments, and a decrease in daily hot metal production due to adverse weather [7].