贵金属日报-20250805

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View - The precious metals are in a volatile trend. With the geopolitical situation cooling down and tariff policies gradually implemented, the market focus has shifted to the US economy and the prospects of interest rate cuts. Amid continuous verification, market sentiment will face fluctuations. If the scenarios of stagflation or even recession become clearer, the upside potential for gold may be reopened. Maintain the idea of buying on dips during the precious metals' volatile trend [1] Other Key Points Economic Data and Market Reaction - Last week, the US released multiple economic data. The annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in Q2 rebounded by 3% more than expected, and the weekly initial jobless claims remained low. However, the key non - farm payrolls data changed unexpectedly. The non - farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months' data was revised down by 258,000 jobs. Trump claimed that the non - farm employment data was manipulated and instructed his team to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics director immediately. The market's concerns about the authenticity of economic data and the US economic outlook have intensified [1] Fed Policy and Market Expectations - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected at its July FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that future policies will be determined based on economic data. With the significant decline in non - farm payrolls, traders fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 90%. Fed's Daly said that the time for rate cuts is approaching, and it is more likely to cut rates more than twice this year [1][2] Tariff - related News - The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months and is waiting for Trump to take action on auto tariffs and exemptions this week. Trump said he will significantly increase tariff rates on India because the country buys Russian oil, and India responded that the accusation is baseless. The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7 and is determined to make a more attractive proposal to the US [2]