HUAXI Securities·2025-08-05 10:00Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, global gold demand increased by 102 tons to 1079 tons, with gold ETF demand rising by 178 tons to 171 tons [1][2] - Total gold supply in Q2 2025 grew by 3% year-on-year, reaching 1249 tons, primarily due to record-high mining output of 909 tons [1][15] - Investment demand for gold surged by 78% year-on-year to 477.2 tons, driven largely by significant inflows into gold ETFs [4][38] Supply Summary - Q2 2025 gold supply reached 1249 tons, a 3% increase year-on-year, with mining output at a record 909 tons [1][15] - Gold recycling in Q2 2025 rose by 4% to 347 tons, maintaining a steady supply despite fluctuations in gold prices [23][25] Demand Summary - Total gold demand in Q2 2025 was 1079 tons, a 10% increase year-on-year but a 17% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2][29] - Jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons, marking the lowest level since Q3 2020 [3][31] - Investment demand for gold bars and coins grew by 11% year-on-year to 307 tons, indicating strong investor interest [7][42] - Central bank demand for gold remained robust at 166.5 tons, despite a 21% year-on-year decline [8][50] Jewelry Demand Insights - Q2 2025 saw a 20% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry demand in China, totaling 69 tons, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [3][33] - In India, gold jewelry consumption decreased by 17% to 89 tons, with the first half of 2025 showing the second-lowest demand since 2000 [3][34] Investment Demand Insights - Gold ETF holdings increased by 170 tons in Q2 2025, contrasting with a decrease of 7 tons in the same period last year [4][41] - North American gold ETFs saw a significant increase of 73 tons, while Asian ETFs also reported strong demand [4][41] Central Bank Demand Insights - Central banks collectively purchased 166.5 tons of gold in Q2 2025, a decrease from previous quarters but still above historical averages [8][50] - Poland emerged as the largest buyer, adding 19 tons to its reserves, despite a reduction from earlier purchases [52][51] Industrial Demand Insights - Industrial gold demand slightly decreased by 2% year-on-year to 79 tons, influenced by ongoing trade uncertainties and rising gold prices [9][56] - Demand for gold in electronics fell by 2% to 66 tons, with challenges stemming from tariffs and export restrictions [9][57]