有色金属周报（工业硅、多晶硅）：工业硅有所回落，多晶硅高位整理-20250805

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The industrial silicon price has declined, while the polysilicon price has remained high and stable. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase significantly in August due to the increase in furnace openings by silicon enterprises. The polysilicon production is also expected to rise, but the demand for silicon wafers may decline. The organic silicon industry has a certain price increase and strong price - holding intention, while the aluminum - silicon alloy industry has weak demand and declining prices. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon - Cost and Profit: In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, while the prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded. Overall, the cost side has weak support for the silicon price. The average profit of industrial silicon 553 and 421 in June was - 2,361 yuan/ton and - 2,049 yuan/ton respectively, showing a month - on - month recovery [3][37]. - Supply: The number of furnace openings of silicon enterprises has increased. In Xinjiang, the previously reduced - production enterprises have recovered; in Yunnan and Sichuan, the operation has increased steadily. It is expected that more silicon enterprises will increase furnace openings in August, with a significant overall increase in supply [3]. - Demand: The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. In July, the output of polysilicon is expected to increase to around 110,000 tons, and there will still be some growth in August. The organic silicon industry has a weak purchase of industrial silicon due to an accident in an individual enterprise, and the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak [3]. - Inventory: The futures price has remained high, and the warehouse receipts have stopped decreasing and started to increase. As the price rises, part of the factory inventory has transferred to the intermediate link and futures - cash traders, and the social inventory has decreased [3]. - Market Outlook: Recently, with the weakening of macro - sentiment and the increase in enterprise operation, the silicon price support has weakened, and it is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [3]. 2. Polysilicon - Supply: In July, some enterprises increased production, mainly in the southwest and Qinghai regions, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [3]. - Demand: The price of downstream silicon wafers has continued to rise, but the silicon wafer quotation cannot cover the full cost. It is expected that the production schedule in July will drop to about 52GW. The battery orders are short - term positive, and the component end has shown a situation of rising first and then falling [3]. - Inventory: As of July 31, the total polysilicon inventory was 229,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.15GW. As of August 1, the total polysilicon futures warehouse receipts were 3,200 lots [3]. - Market Outlook: Last week, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the polysilicon price has declined after reaching a high. Fundamentally, the supply side of silicon materials has a strong expectation of incremental supply, and the demand side has no major changes. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 40,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Organic Silicon - Supply: In July, the DMC start - up rate was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the output was 199,800 tons, showing a month - on - month decline [92]. - Price: The organic silicon price has rebounded. As of August 1, the average price of DMC was 12,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,750 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month; the average price of silicone oil was 14,400 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month [97]. - Market Situation: The monomer factories have received orders smoothly, and due to the low factory inventory pressure, they have a strong intention to hold prices. However, because the downstream inventory is sufficient, the purchase intention has declined after restocking [97]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy - Supply: On the week of July 31, the start - up rate of primary aluminum - silicon alloy was 54.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points; the start - up rate of recycled aluminum - silicon alloy was 53.1%, remaining flat month - on - month [106]. - Price: The aluminum - silicon alloy price has declined. As of August 1, the average price of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%; the average price of A356 was 20,950 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18% [109].