有色金属周度观点-20250805

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate downward. Aluminum may experience pressure and oscillation. Zinc's market rebound is likely to be limited. Lead may face pressure. Nickel and stainless - steel are in a state of adjustment. Tin is in a state of high - level shock. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan. Industrial silicon will return to fundamental - led trading. Polysilicon will oscillate within a wide range [1]. Group 3: Summary by Product Copper - Price and Market Sentiment: US trade policies and economic data have affected market sentiment. The US stock market decline has led to a return of copper prices. The market expects an 8 - month interest rate cut in the US, increasing the sentiment of interest - rate cut trading [1]. - Domestic Supply: Shanghai copper has significantly reduced its positions. The social inventory has increased due to the arrival of domestic and imported copper, with general consumption and tight raw material quotes [1]. - Overseas Supply: LME copper inventory is at 13.95 million tons. A mine in Chile has suspended operations, and Japan's Mitsubishi may cut production due to tight TC [1]. - Trend: Copper prices may face resistance at the 60 - day moving average. LME copper may oscillate down to $3,500 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The operating capacity of alumina remains at a historical high, with an increase in total inventory and an oversupply situation. The price of bauxite overseas is firm, limiting the downward space [1]. - Supply: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is around 4.4 million tons, with limited supply elasticity [1]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic aluminum - processing leading enterprises has slightly decreased. Different aluminum products have different demand situations [1]. - Inventory and Spot: The social inventory of aluminum has increased, and the spot is at a discount. The weekly output of aluminum rods has increased for two consecutive weeks [1]. - Trend: Aluminum ingots may face pressure and oscillation. Pay attention to the support around 20,200 yuan. The demand for aluminum rods is not overly pessimistic [1]. Zinc - Price and Market: The zinc market has returned to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. The main contract of Shanghai zinc has fallen by 2.47%, and LME zinc has fallen by 3.52% [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME zinc inventory has increased to 100,800 tons. The term structure of Shanghai zinc has flattened. The TC has risen in August, and domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory [1]. - Consumption: The terminal consumption has not improved fundamentally. The demand in August is weak, but there is a possibility of policy support during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. - Trend: The zinc market is mainly dominated by the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand. Look for short - selling opportunities around 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - Market and Price: The domestic lead inventory has continued to rise, and the price has fallen. The US dollar index has rebounded, and LME lead has also declined [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME lead inventory has increased to 276,000 tons. Some domestic smelters have maintenance plans [1]. - Consumption: The consumption of some areas has improved, but the impact of rainfall and tariffs on demand needs further verification [1]. - Trend: Shanghai lead may oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan. Wait for inventory guidance [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market and Price: The speculation of "anti - involution" has ended, and the market has returned to fundamentals. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel has decreased, while that of stainless steel has increased [1]. - Supply and Inventory: The upstream price support has weakened. The inventory of nickel - iron and stainless steel has decreased, but the overall inventory level is still high [1]. - Trend: Shanghai nickel is in the latter part of the rebound. Actively intervene in short positions [1]. Tin - Market and Price: The domestic and overseas tin prices have declined. The market is in a state of shock [1]. - Supply: Indonesia's tin production and sales have decreased. The market is concerned about the maintenance time of domestic large - scale factories [1]. - Consumption: The domestic inventory has increased, and LME tin inventory has also increased [1]. - Trend: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average. Hold high - level short positions [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market and Price: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen, and the panic in the market has increased. The trading volume has decreased [1]. - Supply and Demand: The power orders have decreased, and the downstream battery factories are preparing for the peak season. The inventory has been transferred, and the downstream has increased replenishment [1]. - Trend: The price of lithium carbonate futures may fluctuate around 70,000 yuan. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market and Price: The price of industrial silicon has adjusted by 15%, and the market has returned to fundamental - led trading [1]. - Supply and Inventory: The cost of the silicon - coal process has increased. The supply pressure still exists, and the social inventory has increased [1]. - Demand: The demand for industrial silicon has increased marginally. The production of an organic silicon factory has resumed [1]. - Trend: The market will be dominated by fundamentals, and the price will oscillate and adjust [1]. Polysilicon - Market and Price: The price of polysilicon has significantly adjusted. The market is more focused on cost accounting, and the expectation of capacity clearance has decreased [1]. - Supply and Inventory: The production of polysilicon is expected to increase to 120,000 tons in August. The factory inventory has decreased, and the downstream has replenished in advance [1]. - Demand: The price of silicon wafers is expected to rise, and the battery - sheet orders have improved [1]. - Trend: The PS2509 main contract may oscillate widely between 46,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton [1]. Group 4: Recommended Strategies - Hold short positions of silver futures from 288,000 - 270,000 yuan or enter new short positions at 270,000 yuan. The long - term fundamental trend suppresses high - level silver prices [1]. - Adopt a short - selling strategy for Shanghai aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1].