玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20250805

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the far - month contracts may experience increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - month contracts are under pressure due to large warehouse receipt pressure and are following the delivery logic [2]. - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is facing delivery, with trading returning to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price range forecast for the month is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price range forecast for the month is 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management (Glass): For high glass product inventory, to prevent losses, sell FG2509 glass futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - Procurement Management (Glass): For low glass procurement inventory, buy FG2601 glass futures at 1000 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - Inventory Management (Soda Ash): For high soda ash product inventory, sell SA2509 soda ash futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 60 - 70 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - Procurement Management (Soda Ash): For low soda ash procurement inventory, buy SA2601 soda ash futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Price Data - Glass Futures: On August 5, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1332 (up 33 or 2.54% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1077 (down 9 or - 0.83%), and the 01 contract was 1232 (up 3 or 0.24%) [5]. - Glass Spot: On August 5, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1188 (down 2 from the previous day). Prices in Central and East China decreased by 20, and in Southwest China by 10 [6]. - Soda Ash Futures: On August 5, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1427 (up 45 or 3.26% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1271 (up 18 or 1.44%), and the 01 contract was 1368 (up 28 or 2.09%) [7]. - Soda Ash Spot: On August 5, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged, while the price in Qinghai decreased by 20, and in Shahe increased by 18 [8].