国投期货黑色金属日报-20250805

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot Roll: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★, no clear definition provided in the given content [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Steel: Spot supply - demand contradiction is not significant. After adjustment, the market stabilizes with strong downside support. Pay attention to the overall trend of the commodity market [2] - Iron Ore: Expected to be in a short - term oscillating and slightly upward trend [3] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [4] - Coking Coal: Volatility is large in the short term, and the downside space is relatively small [6] - Silicon Manganese: The price bottom gradually rises, but the upside space is gradually suppressed [7] - Ferrosilicon: The upside pressure on the price gradually increases [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Thread: In the off - season, building material demand is weak, with a decline in apparent demand and a slight drop in production. Inventory accumulates at a low level [2] - Hot Roll: Both demand and production increase, and inventory continues to accumulate slightly [2] - Overall: Iron - water production declines but remains high. The negative feedback pressure on the market is small under the low - inventory pattern. Domestic demand is weak, and exports remain relatively high [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments decline this period, with a seasonal rebound expected in August. Domestic arrivals increase but are lower than last year's level. Port inventory decreases significantly [3] - Demand: Terminal demand is weak due to weather. Blast - furnace iron - water decreases slightly, and steel mills have insufficient motivation for active production cuts [3] - Macro: Overseas trade uncertainty exists, and domestic anti - involution concerns cool down. Coking coal rebound drives bullish sentiment [3] Coke - Price: The price rises significantly during the day [4] - Production: The fifth round of price increases is implemented, and daily production decreases slightly [4] - Inventory: Overall inventory continues to decline slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is good [4] Coking Coal - Price: The price hits the daily limit and then declines slightly, with high volatility [6] - Production: Coking coal mine production increases slightly, and the spot auction market improves [6] - Inventory: Total inventory decreases, and production - end inventory drops significantly [6] Silicon Manganese - Demand: Iron - water production remains above 240 [7] - Production: Weekly production continues to increase, but the rate is lower than expected [7] - Raw Materials: Manganese ore prices rise slightly this week, and inventory is expected to accumulate in the second half of the year [7] Ferrosilicon - Demand: Iron - water production decreases slightly but remains above 240. Export demand is about 30,000 tons, and metal magnesium production decreases marginally [8] - Supply: Supply increases slightly, and market transactions are average. On - balance inventory accumulates slightly [8] - Cost: As the peak electricity - consumption period passes, electricity costs may decline [8]