煤炭强势提振市场，钢矿延续震荡上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated upward with a daily increase of 1.38%, and the volume and open interest contracted. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and steel prices are under pressure. However, due to the low inventory pattern, industrial contradictions are not significant, and the downward space is limited. It is expected that steel prices will continue the weak and volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil continued to rise, with a daily increase of 1.89%, and the volume and open interest expanded. At present, although the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil have weakened in the situation of increasing supply and demand, production restriction disturbances are constantly fermenting, and the actual contradictions are not significant. The price of hot - rolled coil continues to run strongly, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated higher, with a daily increase of 1.20%, and the volume and open interest contracted. At present, the demand for iron ore has good resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices. However, the supply of iron ore is increasing, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Under the game of multiple and short factors, it is expected that ore prices will continue the high - level shock consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In the first half of the year, the retail sales of household appliances such as refrigerators increased by 56.6% year - on - year. Driven by large - scale equipment renewal policies and consumer goods trade - in policies, the procurement of mechanical equipment by enterprises and the retail sales of various consumer goods have increased to varying degrees [6]. - According to the Mysteel weekly report, the new - home sales in 10 major cities decreased by 17.7% year - on - year. From July 28th to August 3rd, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities increased by 3.8% month - on - month but decreased by 17.7% year - on - year, while the transaction area of second - hand housing decreased by 6.5% month - on - month but increased by 4.7% year - on - year. There were differences in the transaction area changes among different cities [7]. - Australian steel company BlueScope led an international consortium to bid for the Whyalla Steelworks. The consortium includes Japanese, Indian, and South Korean steel companies. The Whyalla Steelworks has an annual design capacity of about 1.2 million tons of crude steel, with an actual annual output of less than 1 million tons in recent years and a blast furnace operating rate of about 70% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are provided, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight rates, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index, along with their price changes [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore in the futures market are presented [13]. Related Charts - The report includes charts related to steel inventory (rebar and hot - rolled coil), iron ore inventory (ports, mines, and steel mills), and steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization, profitability, etc.) [15][20][29] 后市研判 - Rebar: The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. Production is weakly stable at a low level, and demand has declined again. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are weak, but the low inventory limits the downward space. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand have changed. Supply has increased after the resumption of production by plate mills, and demand has shown resilience. Although the fundamentals have weakened, due to production restriction disturbances and limited contradictions, prices continue to run strongly. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has weakened. Ore consumption has declined, but the good profitability of steel mills ensures demand resilience. The supply of iron ore is increasing steadily. Under the game of multiple and short factors, it is expected to continue the high - level shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [38].