国投期货能源日报-20250805

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the symbol implies a neutral state [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct bearish trend with a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, indicating a bearish view with a relatively clear downward trend and the market is being affected [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a more distinct bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning a more distinct bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The international oil price dropped overnight, and the SC09 contract declined by 1.07% during the day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, pressuring the oil market in the fourth quarter. However, sanctions risks and peak - season demand support the market. There is an upside risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil after the price correction this week [2] - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures, but the decline of fuel - related futures was limited. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and with the recent cost decline, FU and LU are under pressure. The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2] - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared to July, but some refineries' actual production exceeded the plan. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply - side growth space of asphalt is considered neutral, and the BU trend mainly follows the crude oil direction with limited volatility [3] - The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. The domestic demand for LPG has bottom - level support as the PDH operating rate continues to rise. The supply is relatively loose in July, and the refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The LPG futures price maintains a low ratio to oil, and the current basis has risen to a relatively high level, remaining in a weak oscillation [4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The overnight international oil price fell, with the SC09 contract down 1.07% during the day. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, increasing the supply - demand pressure in the fourth quarter. However, sanctions risks and peak - season demand support the market. There is an upside risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil after the price correction this week. Also, attention should be paid to the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures, but the decline of fuel - related futures was limited, especially the low - sulfur fuel oil with a decline of less than 1%. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and with the recent cost decline, FU and LU are under pressure. The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2] Asphalt - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared to July, but some refineries' actual production exceeded the plan. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply - side growth space of asphalt is considered neutral, and the BU trend mainly follows the crude oil direction with limited volatility [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. The domestic demand for LPG has bottom - level support as the PDH operating rate continues to rise. The supply is relatively loose in July, and the refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The LPG futures price maintains a low ratio to oil, and the current basis has risen to a relatively high level, remaining in a weak oscillation [4]