国投期货有色金属日报-20250805

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium in the multi/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, advising to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, with a slightly bullish/bearish trend and a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lead: Not explicitly rated in the content [5] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not explicitly rated in a standardized way but with analysis indicating market trends [6] - Tin: ★☆☆, having a slightly bullish/bearish trend with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, representing a clearer multi/short trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer multi/short trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated in a standardized way but with analysis on market trends [10] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on different metal characteristics [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Shanghai copper closed slightly up on Tuesday. The spot copper was reported at 78,615 yuan, with a premium of 130 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. LME copper inventories increased to over 150,000 tons. There is a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. The resistance of the copper price at the MA40 moving average is strong, and LME copper may decline to $9,500. Hold short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly. The spot discount in East China was 40 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased by 20,000 tons. There has been continuous inventory accumulation for two weeks, and the apparent consumption decline in the off - season is significant. The short - term may be under pressure to fluctuate, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative. In the short - term, the price fluctuates, and in the medium - term, it has certain resilience compared to the aluminum price. Recently, the operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. In the short - term, alumina fluctuates weakly, but the decline space is relatively limited due to the firm price of bauxite in the overseas rainy season [2] Zinc - The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. Funds continue to reduce positions, and short - selling sentiment is gradually released. Refineries have sufficient raw materials, and supply is expected to increase. The zinc concentrate TC still has room to rebound. The demand seasonality is obvious, and the support for prices is insufficient. However, as the 08 contract enters the delivery month and the 09 and 10 contracts expire during the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, policy changes need to be monitored. The support for Shanghai zinc is temporarily seen at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark. Wait and see for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Short - selling sentiment was gradually released, and Shanghai lead rebounded. The SMM1 lead average price was reported at 16,600 yuan/ton. The discount to the 08 contract narrowed to 30 yuan/ton. Lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and some primary lead refineries have regular maintenance plans from late August to early September. Consumption is the key to the rebound of Shanghai lead. The refined lead price remains flat, and the price advantage of recycled lead is almost gone. Downstream buyers prefer to purchase low - priced primary lead. Lead ingot inventories are decreasing, which supports Shanghai lead. In August, the traditional peak season, monitor social inventories to verify the peak - season effect. It is expected that Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and market trading was active. The speculation on the anti - involution theme in the domestic market was severely hit, and the theme speculation cooled down rapidly. Nickel, with relatively poor fundamentals, returned to fundamentals more quickly. The inventory of nickel - iron remained basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound. Actively enter short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin rose during the session, and the current tin price was 267,000 yuan. The overseas tin market has low inventories, and is supported by the production decline of Indonesia's天马 in the first half of the year. Technically, both domestic and overseas tin prices should pay attention to the support of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions at high levels [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated weakly, and market trading contracted. After the price fluctuated repeatedly, the futures - spot lock was unlocked, and a large amount of circulating goods entered the market. Downstream inquiry activities were active, and spot market transactions improved. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the refinery inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The downstream increased replenishment efforts during the price correction. The latest Australian ore quote was $745, which clearly followed the price decline. The weekly smelting output decreased by 8%. The lithium carbonate futures price has some support after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed up with fluctuations, driven by the sentiment of relevant photovoltaic export policy expectations. In the spot market, the supply in major producing areas shows marginal increases, while the realization of the demand increase in polysilicon in August is still uncertain. The leading organic silicon monomer plants are still in the process of gradual resumption. The weekly inventory of industrial silicon shows a slight accumulation trend. Currently, the sentiment in the photovoltaic sector has not dissipated, and industrial silicon futures have corrected significantly. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures rose and then fell at the end of the session, closing above 50,000 yuan/ton, highlighting the divergence between long and short positions. The driving force for the long side comes from the expectation of the adjustment of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic modules. The downstream silicon wafer and battery cell enterprises are expected to slightly revise up their production schedules. The current market highly depends on the implementation rhythm of policies. Given the uncertainty of policy games, consider buying call options [10]