国投期货贵金属日报-20250805

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is in a volatile trend, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips. As geopolitical tensions ease and tariff policies are gradually implemented, market focus shifts to the US economy and interest - rate cut prospects. If stagflation or recession scenarios become clearer, the upside potential of gold may be reopened [1] 3) Summary by Related Content Economic Data - The US Q2 GDP annualized quarterly rate rebounded by 3% more than expected, and the weekly initial jobless claims remained low. However, the July non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months were revised down by 258,000 jobs. Trump claimed the non - farm employment data was manipulated [1] Interest - Rate Policy - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that future policies will be determined by economic data. After the significant decline in non - farm payrolls, traders fully priced in two interest - rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year, and the probability of a September rate cut rose to 90%. Fed's Daly said the time for rate cuts is approaching, and the number of rate cuts this year is more likely to be more than two [1][2] Tariff Policy - The EU will suspend trade countermeasures against the US for 6 months, waiting for Trump's action on auto tariffs and exemptions this week. Trump said he will significantly increase tariffs on India due to its purchase of Russian oil, and India responded that the accusation is baseless. The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7 and is determined to make a more attractive proposal to the US [2]